Special Picks

All important in the handicapping effort is following the pointspread results of "special teams" or "special situations." Special teams are defined as those NBA teams whose recent performance levels either far exceed or fall dramatically below the average. Special situations are favorites that are laying a large number or dogs getting a lot of points. The "Dominating Road Favorite" is an example and is restated below.

Consider the "Overrated Home Favorite." Here is a team that is laying more than 11 points and grades out as an above average performer over its recent play. It has not lost 3 or more consecutive SU games and its opponent is not playing back-to-back. History shows this home favorite is overrated with 97 covers versus 159 losses ATS in its last 256 games for a lowly 38% success rate ATS. This play should occur about 40 times a season.

"The Dominating Road Favorite" is an NBA Road Favorite that outscores its opponents by an average of 10 or more points in its most recent road games. History proves that the road domination continues many times more than not ATS when favored by 5 or more points. This Dominating Road Favorite has 60 covers versus 33 losses ATS for an incredible 65% success rate ATS over the last 93 plays. This play should occur about 15 times a season.

"The Dominating Home Favorite" has outscored their opponents by an average of 15 or more points in their recent home games. In addition, the home team is laying more than 10 points and is not playing back-to-back. The powerful home team has 42 covers versus 18 losses ATS for a scintillating 70% success rate over the last 60 plays. This play occurs about 8 times a season.

"The Excellent Favorite" is a team with a good or better performance and momentum rating in its recent games, is on a SU winning streak with winning momentum, has an overall SU win percentage greater than .600, is not playing back-to-back and is laying 5 or more points. Such teams have 161 covers versus 96 losses ATS for a solid 63% success rate in the last 257 plays. This play should occur about 40 times a season.

"The Bad Dog Winner" is a team on the road getting points that has a very poor performance and momentum rating over its recent games, has played an above average or worse strength of schedule over its most recent games, is not playing back-to-back versus a rested opponent and is opposing a team with winning momentum. This down and out team, believe it or not, has 80 covers versus 54 losses ATS for a terrific 60% success rate over the last 134 plays. This play should occur about 20 times a season.

"Strength of Schedule - Step Down" features a home team coming off a SU win that has played a strong opponents in  recent games and now is opposing a poor team. Also, this home team has an overall SU win percentage less than .700 and does not have excellent performance momentum. Contrary to logic, this home team when stepping down in the caliber of competition has 26 covers versus 51 losses ATS for a poor 34% over the last 77 plays. The play presents itself about 10 times a season.

"Strength of Schedule - Step Up" finds a home team coming off a SU win that has played weak opposition over its recent games and now comes face to face with a good to excellent opponent and the chalk is 9 or less. The shock occurs as the home team has 52 covers versus 90 losses ATS for a miserable 37% success rate ATS over the last 142 contests. This play presents itself on average over 20 times a season.

"Tough Strength of Schedule" is a favorite coming off a SU win with a winning overall SU record, is favored by no more than 4 points, is playing a good or better opponent and has played a tough strength of schedule over its recent games. This team is hardened by recent competition and responds well versus this tough opponent with 29 covers versus 10 losses ATS for an amazing 74% success rate over its last 39 plays. This play should occur about 6 times a season.

"The Momentum Play" is a home favorite coming off a SU loss that has excellent performance momentum opposing a road dog with very poor performance momentum (basically a hot team playing a cold one). When both teams are rested and the home chalk is laying less than 11 points, the home favorite has 33 covers versus 16 losses ATS for a nice 67% success rate over the last 49 plays. This play should occur about 8 times a year.

"The Average Performance Momentum Play" finds both teams with average performance momentum, meaning both teams recent performance basically equals their season-to-date overall record. History shows when the home favorite is coming off a SU win, is not in the midst of a 3 or more game home stand, is laying 7 or less points and has an overall SU winning percentage less than .810, the home chalk has 48 covers versus 86 losses ATS for a poor 36% success rate.

"The Overpriced Hot Favorite" is an average or better performance team that is favored by more than 3 points, has an overall SU win percentage of .600 or less, is on a SU winning streak with winning momentum and is a good or excellent offensive team in its most recent games. History shows these hot favorites crash with 42 covers versus 83 losses ATS for a disappointing 34% success rate in the last 125 plays. This play occurs about 20 times a season.

"The Great O and D Road Favorite" is  a road chalk who has played both excellent offense and defense in its recent games, has an overall SU win percentage greater than .560 and is favored by 6 or more points. Such a play has compiled 53 covers versus 23 losses ATS for a dazzling 70% win percentage over the last 76 plays. This play occurs about 10 times a season.

"The Bad O and D Road Team" has displayed a poor or worse offense and defense in its recent games, is on the road as a dog or a favorite laying no more than 3 points and is not on a 3 or more consecutive game road trip. This road team has 8 covers versus 34 losses ATS for a putrid 19% over the last 42 plays. This play occurs about 6 times a season.

"The Struggling Team Continues" is a team with a poor offensive and defensive rating that is getting less than 11 points, has an overall winning percentage of less than .650, is not playing its third or more consecutive road game and is not playing its first road game following 3 or more consecutive home games. This below average team has 84 covers versus 157 losses ATS for a poor 35% success rate over the last 241 plays. Expect this play to occur about 30 times a season.

"The Rising Road Favorite" is an average to good road team having a positive average score differential in its most recent road games, is coming off a SU win, is playing with rest and is favored by less than 6 points. This road favorite is hitting its stride with 108 covers versus 69 losses ATS for a commanding 61% success rate over its last 177 plays. Expect this play to occur about 15 times a season.

"The Road Favorite Bounce" occurs when an average to good road favorite is coming off a SU loss, is favored by 8 or less and is average or better defensively over recent games. The road favorite bounces back from the SU loss with 53 covers versus 27 losses ATS for a dynamite 66% success rate over the last 80 plays. Expect this play to occur about 15 times a season.

"Freefall" is a team with the very worst offense and defense over its recent games and getting less than 14 points. History shows this team has 14 covers versus 32 losses ATS for a sinking 30% success rate over the last 46 plays. Expect this play to occur about 7 times a season.

"700 Road Team on Winning Streak" finds that in this 2013-14 season, road teams with an overall SU winning percentage of .700 or greater that is on a SU winning streak have 45 covers versus 31 losses ATS for a nice 59% success rate over 76 plays so far this season. This is a trend about this season.

"700 Road Team after SU Loss" finds that in this 2013-14 season, road teams with an overall SU winning percentage of .700 or greater following a SU loss that are either a dog or favored by less than 9 points have 24 covers versus 8 losses ATS for a lofty 75% success rate over the last 32 plays.This is a trend about this season.

"Hot Home Team on a Homestand" features a home team playing its third or more consecutive home game, has an excellent performance rating, has won its last game SU and is laying less than 10 points. Such a team has 73 covers versus 45 losses ATS for a nice 62% success rate. Expect about 15 plays per season.

Additional plays will follow.

The Dominating Road Favorite

NBA Road Favorites that outscore their opponents by an average of 10 or more points in their most recent road games prove that the road domination continues many times more than not ATS when favored by 5 or more points. This Dominating Road Favorite has 60 covers versus 33 losses ATS for an incredible 65% success rate ATS over the last 93 plays. This play should occur about 15 times a season.

How It Works

Matchup Handicapping calculates a pointspread for each NBA game starting after teams have played about 8 to 10 regular season games. This corresponds to weeks 3 or 4 of the regular season. For each game, a pointspread is calculated based on a comparison of performance,  home court advantage, performance & winning momentum and rest and BTB situations between the two opponents. Once the line is calculated, the point discrepancy with the actual posted pointspread is noted and compared to similar historical pointspread differential outcomes. The pointspread differential is calculated by subtracting the calculated line from the actual line (negative numbers are used for favorite lines). If the differential is positive, that team is undervalued or underpriced (calculation shows a favorite should be laying more or a dog should be getting less points). Conversely, a negative line differential indicates an overvalued or overpriced team (calculation shows a favorite is laying too high a number or a dog should be getting more points). For example, the posted line shows the Nets are favored over the Magic by 10 points. However, the calculated pointspread shows the Nets should be a 7 point favorite over the Magic. Thus, the line differential is -3 points (-10 minus -7) meaning the Nets are overpriced by 3 points. Next step determines how have other home favorites overvalued by about 3 points performed in past seasons versus the pointspread?

However, a secondary analysis is needed to better define the model that includes more variables added to the analysis. Additional factors such as a SU win or loss in last game, overall SU winning percentage, winning and losing streaks and pointspread ranges are considered to fine tune the game situation. For the Nets vs. Magic example above, consider how has a home favorite overvalued by 3 points that is on a 3 game SU winning streak, has a plus .550 overall SU win percentage and is laying 10 points fared historically versus the pointspread?

Matchup Handicapping's analysis has identified certain winning situations that qualify for pointspread picks that begin during weeks 3 and 4 of the NBA regular season. Refer to the article titled "The 9 Winning Keys" for further definition of Matchup Handicapping's pointspread selection criteria.

Definitions:
Performance measures a team's ability to outscore the opposition. It combines scoring margins at home and on the road in recent games. Typically, the better teams have the better performance ratings.

There are two momentum ratings. The first is performance momentum which is not an indicator of how good a team is, but rather it indicates whether a team's short term performance is better, equal or worse than its season-to-date performance level. Good teams can have poor momentum and vice versa. Is the team in a slump, on a hot streak or playing to the level of their overall win-loss record?

The other momentum is winning momentum. A team that has won 3 or 4 of its last 4 games SU has winning momentum, a team that has lost 3 or 4 of its last 4 games SU has losing momentum and a team that has won 2 of its last 4 games SU has flat momentum. Consider a team can have winning momentum and a poor performance momentum over its most recent games. This would occur if a superior team was winning their recent games by very close margins.

An overvalued or overpriced team is where Matchup Handicapping's calculated pointspread is more than the posted line (favorites are negative values). For example, the calculated line has the home team favored by 4.5 (-4.5) and the posted line finds the home team favored by 7 (-7). The home team is overvalued by 2.5 points.

An undervalued or underpriced team is where Matchup Handicapping's calculated pointspread is less than the posted line. For example, the calculated line has the road team getting 4.5 points and the posted line shows the road team is getting 7 points. The road team is undervalued by 2.5 points.

BTB refers to a team playing on back-to-back or consecutive days or nights.

A rested team is one not playing BTB. 

SU refers to straight-up or overall win or loss.

ATS refers to against the spread.

NBA Playoff Teams with Swagger

A team with swagger is one that has developed an aura of superiority born from a current streak of dominating the opposition. Such a team demands to win and is not satisfied with simply being good; but rather it is on a crusade to become great. The swagger manifests itself on the hardwood resulting in superior play combined with a super blend of confidence, intimidation, aggression and arrogance to achieve the killer instinct, aka the formula of champions.

Handicappers are always in search of recognizing teams that exhibit this winning edge because many times these formidable clubs blowout the opposition leading to comfortable pointspread victories. Speaking as a handicapper, I can absolutely attest to the fact that there is nothing like the satisfaction of being on the right side of a thoroughly dominating performance.

I use three criteria to determine whether an NBA team has achieved the swagger mode. Decisive home court advantage, winning momentum and an opponent's winning or flat momentum. Matchup Handicapping provides the statistical analysis to qualify the three noted criteria.

First is decisive home court advantage is defined as one team being significantly better than its opponent based on the venue. For example, a team with a recent history of impressive play at home hosting a team with recent struggles on the road would qualify the home squad with decisive home court advantage. Since Matchup Handicapping uses team power ratings, a rule of thumb is the home team’s power rating over its most recent home games is at least ten points better than the opposing road dog’s power rating over its most recent road contests. Nothing intimidates an opponent more than finding itself in a hostile environment facing a superior club.

Winning momentum is readily defined by a team that has won three or four of its last four games outright including its last game. Flat momentum is two SU wins and two SU defeats in the last four games. Losing momentum is three or four SU losses in the last four games.

So the second and third factors pit a winning momentum club versus an opponent with winning or flat momentum (exclude losing momentum).

Playoff home teams with decisive home court advantage and winning momentum are accustom to beating its opposition and carry the winning attitude and expectation into its next contest. This translates to winning pointsprtead performance when the road opposition has winning or flat momentum to the tune of 50 covers versus 33 losses ATS since 2004-05 season. HOWEVER, it produced a poor 4 win 7 loss ATS in 2012-13 so this trend needs to be monitored closely in upcoming seasons.

NBA Playoff Teams with Winning Momentum

Winning teams in the NBA have developed an attitude that gives them the edge on the hardwood to handle adversity and put forth the necessary effort to get the best of the opposition on a consistent basis. Such teams feel really good about themselves and have captured a contagious winning spirit. A general rule in handicapping is that when in doubt, side with an NBA club that exhibits winning momentum, rather than back a club that is mired in a losing cycle.

An easy, yet effective measure of determining winning momentum is to look at an NBA team’s straight-up record over its last four games. In Matchup Handicapping, any NBA team that has won three or four of its last four games outright qualifies as a team with winning momentum. The next step is to find out if there is any correlation between winning momentum and pointspread success in the NBA playoffs.

A strong winning tendency ATS reveals itself when considering home favorites with winning momentum. In the NBA playoffs dating back to the 2004-05 season, home favorites with winning momentum have compiled 151 wins against 115 losses ATS for a neat 56.8% mark.

Although the past 2012-13 playoff season disappointed with 16 covers versus 17 losses ATS, this is a trend worth following.

The Weary NBA Road Dog Warrior

A common theme in NBA handicapping is the rest factor. Many handicappers and bettors like to play against NBA teams in the midst of a long road trip. I have heard and read this rationale on countless occasions. Why not? It sure sounds like a sound reason to make a play. However, logic does not prevail as the facts hardly support the supposition.

Going back to the 2004-05 NBA season, an initial study finds that any NBA road dog coming off a SU loss on its third or more consecutive road game has covered 397 times versus 329 losses ATS. This winning mark computes to 54.7% and is quite admirable given the great number of plays.

Taking it another step, I eliminated the games where either team was playing on back to back nights. These NBA road dogs coming off a SU loss on its third or more consecutive road game, with neither team playing back-to-back, have covered 350 times versus 281 losses ATS. This approach increased the winning percentage to 55.5%.

Never one to leave a job half finished, I called on the Matchup Handicapping performance ratings to fine tune the study in more detail. To my great satisfaction, I uncovered a solid winning situation as follows:

NBA road dogs coming off a SU loss on its third or more consecutive road game, with neither team playing back-to-back and where the opposing home favorite does not have an excellent or very poor performance rating, show an outstanding 236 wins against 171 losses ATS for a rather crisp 58.0% tally. Last season (2012-13) was disappointing as this play produced 23 covers versus 27 losses ATS. We will continue to keep an eye on this.