A common theme in NBA handicapping is the rest factor. Many handicappers and bettors like to play against NBA teams in the midst of a long road trip. I have heard and read this rationale on countless occasions. Why not? It sure sounds like a sound reason to make a play. However, logic does not prevail as the facts hardly support the supposition.
Going back to the 2004-05 NBA season, an initial study finds that any NBA road dog coming off a SU loss on its third or more consecutive road game has covered 397 times versus 329 losses ATS. This winning mark computes to 54.7% and is quite admirable given the great number of plays.
Taking it another step, I eliminated the games where either team was playing on back to back nights. These NBA road dogs coming off a SU loss on its third or more consecutive road game, with neither team playing back-to-back, have covered 350 times versus 281 losses ATS. This approach increased the winning percentage to 55.5%.
Never one to leave a job half finished, I called on the Matchup Handicapping performance ratings to fine tune the study in more detail. To my great satisfaction, I uncovered a solid winning situation as follows:
NBA road dogs coming off a SU loss on its third or more consecutive road game, with neither team playing back-to-back and where the opposing home favorite does not have an excellent or very poor performance rating, show an outstanding 236 wins against 171 losses ATS for a rather crisp 58.0% tally. Last season (2012-13) was disappointing as this play produced 23 covers versus 27 losses ATS. We will continue to keep an eye on this.
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