Saturday, January 14, 2012
UPDATE
I am working on a new website. It will be loaded with pointspread articles. Not sure of the completion date at this time.
Sunday, December 25, 2011
2011-2012 NBA PICKS
NBA picks will start in about 2 weeks once there is enough team data to accurately rate the teams.
Sunday, September 4, 2011
Upcoming Season
If and when it happens, I'll be back with selections and articles.
The picks will have a new format as each selected game will feature individual team ratings and team momentum factors. I will post articles explaining the new format.
In the meantime, click on my NFL blogsite. (link is top left on the home page)
The picks will have a new format as each selected game will feature individual team ratings and team momentum factors. I will post articles explaining the new format.
In the meantime, click on my NFL blogsite. (link is top left on the home page)
Thursday, December 16, 2010
2010-11 NBA Pointspread News to Date
This NBA season has shown a dramatic swing in pointspread performance for home favorites as compared to the three preceeding NBA seasons. Consider that over the first 51 days of the NBA seasons 2007-08, 2008-09 and 2009-10, home favorites with overall SU winning records had a combined 174 covers against 145 losses ATS for an overall 54.6% winners. Furthermore, if we include having to have winning momentum to these teams, with winning momentum being defined as 3 or 4 SU wins in the last 4 games including a SU win in the last game, these HOT home favorites posted a miserable 75 covers versus 92 losses ATS for a poor 44.9% winning mark. Comparing the above two records shows that the home favorites with overall SU winning records without winning momentum were a big winner coming in at 99 covers against 53 losses ATS for a tremendous 65.1% winning mark.
This was not good news for bettors that followed the hot teams. The home favorite flying under the radar was the way to go.
But now it is the 2010-11 NBA season and oh what a change in direction. During the first 51 days, home favorites with overall SU winning records have 52 covers versus 56 losses ATS. Including having to have winning momentum to these teams, these HOT home favorites have cashed 36 covers versus 21 losses ATS for a great 63.2% winning rate. This means that the home favorites with overall SU winning records without winning momentum had covered a horrendous 16 out of 51 games for a truly miserable 31.4% success rate.
So the direct opposite is in play for this season thus far. Backing the hot home favorite is a money maker and betting the home favorite flying under the radar is a bankroll buster.
These dramatic turnarounds have wreaked havoc on my underdog selections thus far this season. However, I am confident that the HOT home favorite will not continue on this torrid winning pace because backing these NBA teams is too popular for John Q. Public bettor. The linesmaker will adjust accordingly.
This was not good news for bettors that followed the hot teams. The home favorite flying under the radar was the way to go.
But now it is the 2010-11 NBA season and oh what a change in direction. During the first 51 days, home favorites with overall SU winning records have 52 covers versus 56 losses ATS. Including having to have winning momentum to these teams, these HOT home favorites have cashed 36 covers versus 21 losses ATS for a great 63.2% winning rate. This means that the home favorites with overall SU winning records without winning momentum had covered a horrendous 16 out of 51 games for a truly miserable 31.4% success rate.
So the direct opposite is in play for this season thus far. Backing the hot home favorite is a money maker and betting the home favorite flying under the radar is a bankroll buster.
These dramatic turnarounds have wreaked havoc on my underdog selections thus far this season. However, I am confident that the HOT home favorite will not continue on this torrid winning pace because backing these NBA teams is too popular for John Q. Public bettor. The linesmaker will adjust accordingly.
Sunday, October 24, 2010
Upcoming 2010-2011 NBA Season
The picks will begin between the second and third week of the regular season as usual. I will be presenting some new interesting twists in picking NBA pointspread winners.
Friday, June 25, 2010
Picks versus Articles
Over the past two seasons, I have had the pleasure of many back and forth discourses with my followers on this blog site. What I have learned is that most of my loyal followers are more interested in the daily picks than the handicapping articles. The consensus says that the $$$ are in the picks and not in the articles which tells me that more bettors than handicappers visit my site.
This is the very reason why I stopped posting articles even though some of you voiced your total dissatisfaction with my decision. The bottom line is that I get very little feedback from the articles compared to how I am doing with my daily picks.
While I do intend to post some articles for both my NBA and NFL sites, my future emphasis will be on the daily picks which are TOTALLY FREE and more importantly POST A PROFIT. As the majority of my readers continue to tell me - the money and the appeal is in the picks, not in the articles. An investment strategy that leads directly to bankroll growth far outweighs philosophical and technical discussions about handicapping angles.
Thanks again and I will be back for the next NFL and NBA seasons. My total record to date ATS after three seasons (two NBA and one NFL) is as follows:
2008-09 NBA season 140 wins and 118 losses +10.2 units
2009 NFL season 39 wins and 27 losses +9.1 units
2009-10 NBA season 96 wins and 81 losses +6.9 units
Running Total 275 wins and 226 losses +26.2 units +54.9 winners
Starting each season with a $5000 bankroll and following my wagering strategy of all bets being 5% at a 10% juice, or wager $275 to win $250 per bet, the total running profit after the three seasons is a healthy $6,600. Thus, the overall risk was $15,000 which means the bankroll growth has been a robust 30.6% (15000+6600) / 6600). Come on NFL season!
This is the very reason why I stopped posting articles even though some of you voiced your total dissatisfaction with my decision. The bottom line is that I get very little feedback from the articles compared to how I am doing with my daily picks.
While I do intend to post some articles for both my NBA and NFL sites, my future emphasis will be on the daily picks which are TOTALLY FREE and more importantly POST A PROFIT. As the majority of my readers continue to tell me - the money and the appeal is in the picks, not in the articles. An investment strategy that leads directly to bankroll growth far outweighs philosophical and technical discussions about handicapping angles.
Thanks again and I will be back for the next NFL and NBA seasons. My total record to date ATS after three seasons (two NBA and one NFL) is as follows:
2008-09 NBA season 140 wins and 118 losses +10.2 units
2009 NFL season 39 wins and 27 losses +9.1 units
2009-10 NBA season 96 wins and 81 losses +6.9 units
Running Total 275 wins and 226 losses +26.2 units +54.9 winners
Starting each season with a $5000 bankroll and following my wagering strategy of all bets being 5% at a 10% juice, or wager $275 to win $250 per bet, the total running profit after the three seasons is a healthy $6,600. Thus, the overall risk was $15,000 which means the bankroll growth has been a robust 30.6% (15000+6600) / 6600). Come on NFL season!
Thursday, June 17, 2010
Today's NBA Picks
Season Ending ATS record: 96 wins and 81 losses (+6.9 units)
There is no pick for game 7. Too close to call and it should be a great contest.
There is no pick for game 7. Too close to call and it should be a great contest.
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)
