How It Works

Matchup Handicapping calculates a pointspread for each NBA game starting after teams have played about 8 to 10 regular season games. This corresponds to weeks 3 or 4 of the regular season. For each game, a pointspread is calculated based on a comparison of performance,  home court advantage, performance & winning momentum and rest and BTB situations between the two opponents. Once the line is calculated, the point discrepancy with the actual posted pointspread is noted and compared to similar historical pointspread differential outcomes. The pointspread differential is calculated by subtracting the calculated line from the actual line (negative numbers are used for favorite lines). If the differential is positive, that team is undervalued or underpriced (calculation shows a favorite should be laying more or a dog should be getting less points). Conversely, a negative line differential indicates an overvalued or overpriced team (calculation shows a favorite is laying too high a number or a dog should be getting more points). For example, the posted line shows the Nets are favored over the Magic by 10 points. However, the calculated pointspread shows the Nets should be a 7 point favorite over the Magic. Thus, the line differential is -3 points (-10 minus -7) meaning the Nets are overpriced by 3 points. Next step determines how have other home favorites overvalued by about 3 points performed in past seasons versus the pointspread?

However, a secondary analysis is needed to better define the model that includes more variables added to the analysis. Additional factors such as a SU win or loss in last game, overall SU winning percentage, winning and losing streaks and pointspread ranges are considered to fine tune the game situation. For the Nets vs. Magic example above, consider how has a home favorite overvalued by 3 points that is on a 3 game SU winning streak, has a plus .550 overall SU win percentage and is laying 10 points fared historically versus the pointspread?

Matchup Handicapping's analysis has identified certain winning situations that qualify for pointspread picks that begin during weeks 3 and 4 of the NBA regular season. Refer to the article titled "The 9 Winning Keys" for further definition of Matchup Handicapping's pointspread selection criteria.

Definitions:
Performance measures a team's ability to outscore the opposition. It combines scoring margins at home and on the road in recent games. Typically, the better teams have the better performance ratings.

There are two momentum ratings. The first is performance momentum which is not an indicator of how good a team is, but rather it indicates whether a team's short term performance is better, equal or worse than its season-to-date performance level. Good teams can have poor momentum and vice versa. Is the team in a slump, on a hot streak or playing to the level of their overall win-loss record?

The other momentum is winning momentum. A team that has won 3 or 4 of its last 4 games SU has winning momentum, a team that has lost 3 or 4 of its last 4 games SU has losing momentum and a team that has won 2 of its last 4 games SU has flat momentum. Consider a team can have winning momentum and a poor performance momentum over its most recent games. This would occur if a superior team was winning their recent games by very close margins.

An overvalued or overpriced team is where Matchup Handicapping's calculated pointspread is more than the posted line (favorites are negative values). For example, the calculated line has the home team favored by 4.5 (-4.5) and the posted line finds the home team favored by 7 (-7). The home team is overvalued by 2.5 points.

An undervalued or underpriced team is where Matchup Handicapping's calculated pointspread is less than the posted line. For example, the calculated line has the road team getting 4.5 points and the posted line shows the road team is getting 7 points. The road team is undervalued by 2.5 points.

BTB refers to a team playing on back-to-back or consecutive days or nights.

A rested team is one not playing BTB. 

SU refers to straight-up or overall win or loss.

ATS refers to against the spread.