Winning teams in the NBA have developed an attitude that gives them the edge on the hardwood to handle adversity and put forth the necessary effort to get the best of the opposition on a consistent basis. Such teams feel really good about themselves and have captured a contagious winning spirit. A general rule in handicapping is that when in doubt, side with an NBA club that exhibits winning momentum, rather than back a club that is mired in a losing cycle.
An easy, yet effective measure of determining winning momentum is to look at an NBA team’s straight-up record over its last four games. In Matchup Handicapping, any NBA team that has won three or four of its last four games outright qualifies as a team with winning momentum. The next step is to find out if there is any correlation between winning momentum and pointspread success in the NBA playoffs.
A strong winning tendency ATS reveals itself when considering home favorites with winning momentum. In the NBA playoffs dating back to the 2004-05 season, home favorites with winning momentum have compiled 151 wins against 115 losses ATS for a neat 56.8% mark.
Although the past 2012-13 playoff season disappointed with 16 covers versus 17 losses ATS, this is a trend worth following.
Monday, July 1, 2013
The Weary NBA Road Dog Warrior
A common theme in NBA handicapping is the rest factor. Many handicappers and bettors like to play against NBA teams in the midst of a long road trip. I have heard and read this rationale on countless occasions. Why not? It sure sounds like a sound reason to make a play. However, logic does not prevail as the facts hardly support the supposition.
Going back to the 2004-05 NBA season, an initial study finds that any NBA road dog coming off a SU loss on its third or more consecutive road game has covered 397 times versus 329 losses ATS. This winning mark computes to 54.7% and is quite admirable given the great number of plays.
Taking it another step, I eliminated the games where either team was playing on back to back nights. These NBA road dogs coming off a SU loss on its third or more consecutive road game, with neither team playing back-to-back, have covered 350 times versus 281 losses ATS. This approach increased the winning percentage to 55.5%.
Never one to leave a job half finished, I called on the Matchup Handicapping performance ratings to fine tune the study in more detail. To my great satisfaction, I uncovered a solid winning situation as follows:
NBA road dogs coming off a SU loss on its third or more consecutive road game, with neither team playing back-to-back and where the opposing home favorite does not have an excellent or very poor performance rating, show an outstanding 236 wins against 171 losses ATS for a rather crisp 58.0% tally. Last season (2012-13) was disappointing as this play produced 23 covers versus 27 losses ATS. We will continue to keep an eye on this.
Going back to the 2004-05 NBA season, an initial study finds that any NBA road dog coming off a SU loss on its third or more consecutive road game has covered 397 times versus 329 losses ATS. This winning mark computes to 54.7% and is quite admirable given the great number of plays.
Taking it another step, I eliminated the games where either team was playing on back to back nights. These NBA road dogs coming off a SU loss on its third or more consecutive road game, with neither team playing back-to-back, have covered 350 times versus 281 losses ATS. This approach increased the winning percentage to 55.5%.
Never one to leave a job half finished, I called on the Matchup Handicapping performance ratings to fine tune the study in more detail. To my great satisfaction, I uncovered a solid winning situation as follows:
NBA road dogs coming off a SU loss on its third or more consecutive road game, with neither team playing back-to-back and where the opposing home favorite does not have an excellent or very poor performance rating, show an outstanding 236 wins against 171 losses ATS for a rather crisp 58.0% tally. Last season (2012-13) was disappointing as this play produced 23 covers versus 27 losses ATS. We will continue to keep an eye on this.
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