Special Picks

All important in the handicapping effort is following the pointspread results of "special teams" or "special situations." Special teams are defined as those NBA teams whose recent performance levels either far exceed or fall dramatically below the average. Special situations are favorites that are laying a large number or dogs getting a lot of points. The "Dominating Road Favorite" is an example and is restated below.

Consider the "Overrated Home Favorite." Here is a team that is laying more than 11 points and grades out as an above average performer over its recent play. It has not lost 3 or more consecutive SU games and its opponent is not playing back-to-back. History shows this home favorite is overrated with 97 covers versus 159 losses ATS in its last 256 games for a lowly 38% success rate ATS. This play should occur about 40 times a season.

"The Dominating Road Favorite" is an NBA Road Favorite that outscores its opponents by an average of 10 or more points in its most recent road games. History proves that the road domination continues many times more than not ATS when favored by 5 or more points. This Dominating Road Favorite has 60 covers versus 33 losses ATS for an incredible 65% success rate ATS over the last 93 plays. This play should occur about 15 times a season.

"The Dominating Home Favorite" has outscored their opponents by an average of 15 or more points in their recent home games. In addition, the home team is laying more than 10 points and is not playing back-to-back. The powerful home team has 42 covers versus 18 losses ATS for a scintillating 70% success rate over the last 60 plays. This play occurs about 8 times a season.

"The Excellent Favorite" is a team with a good or better performance and momentum rating in its recent games, is on a SU winning streak with winning momentum, has an overall SU win percentage greater than .600, is not playing back-to-back and is laying 5 or more points. Such teams have 161 covers versus 96 losses ATS for a solid 63% success rate in the last 257 plays. This play should occur about 40 times a season.

"The Bad Dog Winner" is a team on the road getting points that has a very poor performance and momentum rating over its recent games, has played an above average or worse strength of schedule over its most recent games, is not playing back-to-back versus a rested opponent and is opposing a team with winning momentum. This down and out team, believe it or not, has 80 covers versus 54 losses ATS for a terrific 60% success rate over the last 134 plays. This play should occur about 20 times a season.

"Strength of Schedule - Step Down" features a home team coming off a SU win that has played a strong opponents in  recent games and now is opposing a poor team. Also, this home team has an overall SU win percentage less than .700 and does not have excellent performance momentum. Contrary to logic, this home team when stepping down in the caliber of competition has 26 covers versus 51 losses ATS for a poor 34% over the last 77 plays. The play presents itself about 10 times a season.

"Strength of Schedule - Step Up" finds a home team coming off a SU win that has played weak opposition over its recent games and now comes face to face with a good to excellent opponent and the chalk is 9 or less. The shock occurs as the home team has 52 covers versus 90 losses ATS for a miserable 37% success rate ATS over the last 142 contests. This play presents itself on average over 20 times a season.

"Tough Strength of Schedule" is a favorite coming off a SU win with a winning overall SU record, is favored by no more than 4 points, is playing a good or better opponent and has played a tough strength of schedule over its recent games. This team is hardened by recent competition and responds well versus this tough opponent with 29 covers versus 10 losses ATS for an amazing 74% success rate over its last 39 plays. This play should occur about 6 times a season.

"The Momentum Play" is a home favorite coming off a SU loss that has excellent performance momentum opposing a road dog with very poor performance momentum (basically a hot team playing a cold one). When both teams are rested and the home chalk is laying less than 11 points, the home favorite has 33 covers versus 16 losses ATS for a nice 67% success rate over the last 49 plays. This play should occur about 8 times a year.

"The Average Performance Momentum Play" finds both teams with average performance momentum, meaning both teams recent performance basically equals their season-to-date overall record. History shows when the home favorite is coming off a SU win, is not in the midst of a 3 or more game home stand, is laying 7 or less points and has an overall SU winning percentage less than .810, the home chalk has 48 covers versus 86 losses ATS for a poor 36% success rate.

"The Overpriced Hot Favorite" is an average or better performance team that is favored by more than 3 points, has an overall SU win percentage of .600 or less, is on a SU winning streak with winning momentum and is a good or excellent offensive team in its most recent games. History shows these hot favorites crash with 42 covers versus 83 losses ATS for a disappointing 34% success rate in the last 125 plays. This play occurs about 20 times a season.

"The Great O and D Road Favorite" is  a road chalk who has played both excellent offense and defense in its recent games, has an overall SU win percentage greater than .560 and is favored by 6 or more points. Such a play has compiled 53 covers versus 23 losses ATS for a dazzling 70% win percentage over the last 76 plays. This play occurs about 10 times a season.

"The Bad O and D Road Team" has displayed a poor or worse offense and defense in its recent games, is on the road as a dog or a favorite laying no more than 3 points and is not on a 3 or more consecutive game road trip. This road team has 8 covers versus 34 losses ATS for a putrid 19% over the last 42 plays. This play occurs about 6 times a season.

"The Struggling Team Continues" is a team with a poor offensive and defensive rating that is getting less than 11 points, has an overall winning percentage of less than .650, is not playing its third or more consecutive road game and is not playing its first road game following 3 or more consecutive home games. This below average team has 84 covers versus 157 losses ATS for a poor 35% success rate over the last 241 plays. Expect this play to occur about 30 times a season.

"The Rising Road Favorite" is an average to good road team having a positive average score differential in its most recent road games, is coming off a SU win, is playing with rest and is favored by less than 6 points. This road favorite is hitting its stride with 108 covers versus 69 losses ATS for a commanding 61% success rate over its last 177 plays. Expect this play to occur about 15 times a season.

"The Road Favorite Bounce" occurs when an average to good road favorite is coming off a SU loss, is favored by 8 or less and is average or better defensively over recent games. The road favorite bounces back from the SU loss with 53 covers versus 27 losses ATS for a dynamite 66% success rate over the last 80 plays. Expect this play to occur about 15 times a season.

"Freefall" is a team with the very worst offense and defense over its recent games and getting less than 14 points. History shows this team has 14 covers versus 32 losses ATS for a sinking 30% success rate over the last 46 plays. Expect this play to occur about 7 times a season.

"700 Road Team on Winning Streak" finds that in this 2013-14 season, road teams with an overall SU winning percentage of .700 or greater that is on a SU winning streak have 45 covers versus 31 losses ATS for a nice 59% success rate over 76 plays so far this season. This is a trend about this season.

"700 Road Team after SU Loss" finds that in this 2013-14 season, road teams with an overall SU winning percentage of .700 or greater following a SU loss that are either a dog or favored by less than 9 points have 24 covers versus 8 losses ATS for a lofty 75% success rate over the last 32 plays.This is a trend about this season.

"Hot Home Team on a Homestand" features a home team playing its third or more consecutive home game, has an excellent performance rating, has won its last game SU and is laying less than 10 points. Such a team has 73 covers versus 45 losses ATS for a nice 62% success rate. Expect about 15 plays per season.

Additional plays will follow.