A team with swagger is one that has developed an aura of superiority born from a current streak of dominating the opposition. Such a team demands to win and is not satisfied with simply being good; but rather it is on a crusade to become great. The swagger manifests itself on the hardwood resulting in superior play combined with a super blend of confidence, intimidation, aggression and arrogance to achieve the killer instinct, aka the formula of champions.
Handicappers are always in search of recognizing teams that exhibit this winning edge because many times these formidable clubs blowout the opposition leading to comfortable pointspread victories. Speaking as a handicapper, I can absolutely attest to the fact that there is nothing like the satisfaction of being on the right side of a thoroughly dominating performance.
I use three criteria to determine whether an NBA team has achieved the swagger mode. Decisive home court advantage, winning momentum and an opponent's winning or flat momentum. Matchup Handicapping provides the statistical analysis to qualify the three noted criteria.
First is decisive home court advantage is defined as one team being significantly better than its opponent based on the venue. For example, a team with a recent history of impressive play at home hosting a team with recent struggles on the road would qualify the home squad with decisive home court advantage. Since Matchup Handicapping uses team power ratings, a rule of thumb is the home team’s power rating over its most recent home games is at least ten points better than the opposing road dog’s power rating over its most recent road contests. Nothing intimidates an opponent more than finding itself in a hostile environment facing a superior club.
Winning momentum is readily defined by a team that has won three or four of its last four games outright including its last game. Flat momentum is two SU wins and two SU defeats in the last four games. Losing momentum is three or four SU losses in the last four games.
So the second and third factors pit a winning momentum club versus an opponent with winning or flat momentum (exclude losing momentum).
Playoff home teams with decisive home court advantage and winning momentum are accustom to beating its opposition and carry the winning attitude and expectation into its next contest. This translates to winning pointsprtead performance when the road opposition has winning or flat momentum to the tune of 50 covers versus 33 losses ATS since 2004-05 season. HOWEVER, it produced a poor 4 win 7 loss ATS in 2012-13 so this trend needs to be monitored closely in upcoming seasons.
Wednesday, July 3, 2013
Monday, July 1, 2013
NBA Playoff Teams with Winning Momentum
Winning teams in the NBA have developed an attitude that gives them the edge on the hardwood to handle adversity and put forth the necessary effort to get the best of the opposition on a consistent basis. Such teams feel really good about themselves and have captured a contagious winning spirit. A general rule in handicapping is that when in doubt, side with an NBA club that exhibits winning momentum, rather than back a club that is mired in a losing cycle.
An easy, yet effective measure of determining winning momentum is to look at an NBA team’s straight-up record over its last four games. In Matchup Handicapping, any NBA team that has won three or four of its last four games outright qualifies as a team with winning momentum. The next step is to find out if there is any correlation between winning momentum and pointspread success in the NBA playoffs.
A strong winning tendency ATS reveals itself when considering home favorites with winning momentum. In the NBA playoffs dating back to the 2004-05 season, home favorites with winning momentum have compiled 151 wins against 115 losses ATS for a neat 56.8% mark.
Although the past 2012-13 playoff season disappointed with 16 covers versus 17 losses ATS, this is a trend worth following.
An easy, yet effective measure of determining winning momentum is to look at an NBA team’s straight-up record over its last four games. In Matchup Handicapping, any NBA team that has won three or four of its last four games outright qualifies as a team with winning momentum. The next step is to find out if there is any correlation between winning momentum and pointspread success in the NBA playoffs.
A strong winning tendency ATS reveals itself when considering home favorites with winning momentum. In the NBA playoffs dating back to the 2004-05 season, home favorites with winning momentum have compiled 151 wins against 115 losses ATS for a neat 56.8% mark.
Although the past 2012-13 playoff season disappointed with 16 covers versus 17 losses ATS, this is a trend worth following.
The Weary NBA Road Dog Warrior
A common theme in NBA handicapping is the rest factor. Many handicappers and bettors like to play against NBA teams in the midst of a long road trip. I have heard and read this rationale on countless occasions. Why not? It sure sounds like a sound reason to make a play. However, logic does not prevail as the facts hardly support the supposition.
Going back to the 2004-05 NBA season, an initial study finds that any NBA road dog coming off a SU loss on its third or more consecutive road game has covered 397 times versus 329 losses ATS. This winning mark computes to 54.7% and is quite admirable given the great number of plays.
Taking it another step, I eliminated the games where either team was playing on back to back nights. These NBA road dogs coming off a SU loss on its third or more consecutive road game, with neither team playing back-to-back, have covered 350 times versus 281 losses ATS. This approach increased the winning percentage to 55.5%.
Never one to leave a job half finished, I called on the Matchup Handicapping performance ratings to fine tune the study in more detail. To my great satisfaction, I uncovered a solid winning situation as follows:
NBA road dogs coming off a SU loss on its third or more consecutive road game, with neither team playing back-to-back and where the opposing home favorite does not have an excellent or very poor performance rating, show an outstanding 236 wins against 171 losses ATS for a rather crisp 58.0% tally. Last season (2012-13) was disappointing as this play produced 23 covers versus 27 losses ATS. We will continue to keep an eye on this.
Going back to the 2004-05 NBA season, an initial study finds that any NBA road dog coming off a SU loss on its third or more consecutive road game has covered 397 times versus 329 losses ATS. This winning mark computes to 54.7% and is quite admirable given the great number of plays.
Taking it another step, I eliminated the games where either team was playing on back to back nights. These NBA road dogs coming off a SU loss on its third or more consecutive road game, with neither team playing back-to-back, have covered 350 times versus 281 losses ATS. This approach increased the winning percentage to 55.5%.
Never one to leave a job half finished, I called on the Matchup Handicapping performance ratings to fine tune the study in more detail. To my great satisfaction, I uncovered a solid winning situation as follows:
NBA road dogs coming off a SU loss on its third or more consecutive road game, with neither team playing back-to-back and where the opposing home favorite does not have an excellent or very poor performance rating, show an outstanding 236 wins against 171 losses ATS for a rather crisp 58.0% tally. Last season (2012-13) was disappointing as this play produced 23 covers versus 27 losses ATS. We will continue to keep an eye on this.
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