The Hook Slide

All NBA games have an opening line. It is sometimes released the night before, known as the overnight line. This is the linesmaker’s best estimate to entice equal action on both sides. As accurate as the linesmaker is at setting the initial line, there is obviously no guarantee that equal action will follow for every game. To overcome this uncertainty, sportsbooks have the capacity to adjust the line, usually in half-point increments, right up to game time to keep the action balanced to the greatest extent possible.

The biggest line adjustment usually occurs right after the opening line is released. It is said that many professional gamblers will see great value in some early lines and they want to get their money placed before the line moves against them. Sportsbooks often use this first round of activity to fine-tune the pointspreads. After this adjustment period, the lines in most NBA games stabilize to a large degree. This frequently happens before many cappers and bettors even begin to look at the games on the betting card.

Yes, you will see half-point differentials in Vegas and offshore books throughout the day. There are times you may even see a full point differential, but this is usually over a very short time occurrence. When shopping for the best line, the key for bettors is to guess when the line is affording them the maximum value. For example, a bettor wants to back the Cavs and the accessible lines have the Cavs at -8 or -8.5. If the bettor feels that -8 is going to be the best line available throughout the day, the bettor places the bet at -8. This is not to say that the line couldn’t move to -7.5 at some point later.

There is a general rule that says if you are going to play favorites, get the action down early. Conversely, if you are going to play dogs, get the action down late. Consider the logic in this process. If early money goes on the favorites, then the books will obviously increase the points for the dogs to get the equal action. However, like everything else in life there are no guarantees that this will hold true for any given game. In fact, many games will do the direct opposite. Hence, the term is gambling.

On numerous occasions, I have heard and read comments from professional handicappers who claim that “while shopping for the best line is prudent, a half point difference (referred to as a hook) here and there over the long haul should balance out, therefore it should not have a significant impact on winning and losing.” Moreover, many pro cappers have often stated that if a half point is going to make the difference between winning and losing, one should not be in the sports betting business.

On the surface, I totally agree with this viewpoint. Due to the total randomness of how a sports contest could play out, there are certainly heavy doses of good and bad luck associated with sports betting. We all have experienced the agonizing half point defeats and the exhilarating half point victories ATS. They are inevitable. We can only hope that the half point margins balance out over time.

Unfortunately, there are many professional cappers who take an unfair advantage of an unsuspecting public with their half point tactics. This sleight of hand is accomplished when pro cappers release their plays by just giving the side or the over or under. By not listing a specific pointspread or total associated with the games, this allows them the opportunity to grab a half point should they need it to convert a loss to a push or a push to a win. In other words, they are not going to lose a game by a half point. If the bettor lost the game by a half point, the capper maintains that it is the bettor’s fault for not getting the best line.

Another approach is for a capper to simply post the best line or total that occurred during the day which reflects the best value for them, even though that number may have been the opening line and is no longer available at the time of the release. What good is this line if the bettors can't get it? Sometimes this practice can give cappers a full point advantage at their disposal. Such tactics are trickery. I refer to this unscrupulous practice as the “hook slide.”

So how much of an advantage is the hook slide? Over the past few NBA seasons, about 8% of all the games fall within a point of the posted line. Therefore, for every 100 NBA games released by a handicapper, there will be approximately 8 games available for the hook slide.

Now, let’s assume my 85 year old mother, who is still quite sharp of mind I may add, wants to become a professional NBA handicapper (hypothetically of course). Although she really doesn’t know anything about any of the NBA teams, she knows the pointspread theoretically makes every game appear equal. Therefore, she picks the games by flipping a coin – heads selects a play for the home team and tails for the road team. She figures the odds are 50-50 for every game and if she picks 205 NBA games her ATS record will be about 100 wins and 100 losses with 5 pushes.

Obviously, 50% winners are a losing proposition in the sports betting world due to the vigorish. If 10% juice is used for my mom’s plays, she winds up with -10 units. Since I advocate a betting strategy that starts with a bankroll of 20 units, my mom’s performance would effectively reduce the starting bankroll by 50% by season end. Needless to say, my mom is not too happy with the prospect of finishing this much in the red and therefore decides to exit the business.

Let’s say there is another handicapper who made the same exact 205 plays as my mom. But, the difference is that this capper readily employs the hook slide tactic. Therefore, the 5 push games become wins with the half point slide and another 5 losses result in pushes with the half point slide. Doing the math for the affected ten games, the hook slide converts the modified ATS record to 105 wins and 95 losses with 5 pushes. The bottom line is now +0.5 units which is a huge improvement over -10 units.

The hook slide allows a convenient way for cappers to dupe the betting public about their ATS record. You can readily see that handicappers only need about 50% winners ATS when picking 200 to 300 NBA games to have a winning season when using the hook slide. This is an all too common handicapping scam and there appears no way to prevent its continued use.