Wager Guidelines

There is no “lock” or “strongest play of the season” philosophy. Although some plays seem to have more factors in their favor, it is highly recommended that all the pointspread plays in Matchup Handicapping are of equal play strength. With a projected 54-58% winning clip, no play should be weighted more than another because there just isn't a large enough winning percentage disparity to warrant making some plays worth more than others.

Simply put, a play is a play or not a play. There is no gray area. There is just too much uncertainty when it comes to pointspreads given the ability of the linesmaker to consistently project neutral lines and the overall randomness of how any game may play out.

Since all knowledgeable cappers and bettors know it requires 52.38% pointspread winners to break even (at 10% juice) assuming that all the wagers are of equal amount, the Matchup Handicapping approach helps to overcome the vig and realistically places the cappers and bettors in a winning environment. Again, there are no guarantees in a winning percentage, but there is a realistic understanding that a 54-58% winning percentage over a season is both attainable and acceptable.

How should one wager? Any wise and disciplined money management approach requires a bankroll to begin the season. The bankroll amount is a lump sum of cash set aside in a separate account and is what the player can afford to lose without undermining or destabilizing the bettor’s livelihood. Think of it as strictly disposable income for investment or venture capital enterprises. The paramount question to ask of oneself is “can I afford to lose all this money?” If and only if the answer is yes, then you can start making wagers.

I recommend that all wagers during a season be 5% of the starting bankroll amount. For example, if the starting bankroll is $10,000, each wager should be $500. As stated elsewhere in this blog site, if the bettor wins about 56% of the bets over about 300 plays (about an NBA season), the bettor essentially doubles the starting bankroll.