Matchup Handicapping for the NBA

UPDATE

2012-01-14T08:22:00.000-05:00

I am working on a new website. It will be loaded with pointspread articles. Not sure of the completion date at this time.

2011-2012 NBA PICKS

2011-12-25T08:17:00.000-05:00

NBA picks will start in about 2 weeks once there is enough team data to accurately rate the teams.

Upcoming Season

2011-09-04T09:00:00.002-04:00

If and when it happens, I'll be back with selections and articles.

The picks will have a new format as each selected game will feature individual team ratings and team momentum factors. I will post articles explaining the new format.

In the meantime, click on my NFL blogsite. (link is top left on the home page)

2010-11 NBA Pointspread News to Date

2010-12-16T14:21:00.006-05:00

This NBA season has shown a dramatic swing in pointspread performance for home favorites as compared to the three preceeding NBA seasons. Consider that over the first 51 days of the NBA seasons 2007-08, 2008-09 and 2009-10, home favorites with overall SU winning records had a combined 174 covers against 145 losses ATS for an overall 54.6% winners. Furthermore, if we include having to have winning momentum to these teams, with winning momentum being defined as 3 or 4 SU wins in the last 4 games including a SU win in the last game, these HOT home favorites posted a miserable 75 covers versus 92 losses ATS for a poor 44.9% winning mark. Comparing the above two records shows that the home favorites with overall SU winning records without winning momentum were a big winner coming in at 99 covers against 53 losses ATS for a tremendous 65.1% winning mark.

This was not good news for bettors that followed the hot teams. The home favorite flying under the radar was the way to go.

But now it is the 2010-11 NBA season and oh what a change in direction. During the first 51 days, home favorites with overall SU winning records have 52 covers versus 56 losses ATS. Including having to have winning momentum to these teams, these HOT home favorites have cashed 36 covers versus 21 losses ATS for a great 63.2% winning rate. This means that the home favorites with overall SU winning records without winning momentum had covered a horrendous 16 out of 51 games for a truly miserable 31.4% success rate.

So the direct opposite is in play for this season thus far. Backing the hot home favorite is a money maker and betting the home favorite flying under the radar is a bankroll buster.

These dramatic turnarounds have wreaked havoc on my underdog selections thus far this season. However, I am confident that the HOT home favorite will not continue on this torrid winning pace because backing these NBA teams is too popular for John Q. Public bettor. The linesmaker will adjust accordingly.

Upcoming 2010-2011 NBA Season

2010-10-24T10:14:00.000-04:00

The picks will begin between the second and third week of the regular season as usual. I will be presenting some new interesting twists in picking NBA pointspread winners.

Picks versus Articles

2010-06-25T20:20:00.001-04:00

Over the past two seasons, I have had the pleasure of many back and forth discourses with my followers on this blog site. What I have learned is that most of my loyal followers are more interested in the daily picks than the handicapping articles. The consensus says that the $$$ are in the picks and not in the articles which tells me that more bettors than handicappers visit my site.

This is the very reason why I stopped posting articles even though some of you voiced your total dissatisfaction with my decision. The bottom line is that I get very little feedback from the articles compared to how I am doing with my daily picks.

While I do intend to post some articles for both my NBA and NFL sites, my future emphasis will be on the daily picks which are TOTALLY FREE and more importantly POST A PROFIT. As the majority of my readers continue to tell me - the money and the appeal is in the picks, not in the articles. An investment strategy that leads directly to bankroll growth far outweighs philosophical and technical discussions about handicapping angles.

Thanks again and I will be back for the next NFL and NBA seasons. My total record to date ATS after three seasons (two NBA and one NFL) is as follows:

2008-09 NBA season      140 wins and 118 losses     +10.2 units
2009       NFL season        39 wins and 27 losses        +9.1 units
2009-10 NBA season       96 wins and 81 losses       +6.9 units

Running Total                   275 wins and 226 losses      +26.2 units       +54.9 winners

Starting each season with a $5000 bankroll and following my wagering strategy of all bets being 5% at a 10% juice, or wager $275 to win $250 per bet, the total running profit after the three seasons is a healthy $6,600. Thus, the overall risk was $15,000 which means the bankroll growth has been a robust 30.6% (15000+6600) / 6600). Come on NFL season!

Today's NBA Picks

2010-06-17T05:31:00.004-04:00

Season Ending ATS record: 96 wins and 81 losses (+6.9 units)

There is no pick for game 7. Too close to call and it should be a great contest.

Predicting Performance on the NBA Court

2010-01-28T13:11:00.007-05:00

The most challenging aspect of handicapping the NBA is trying to predict how an NBA team is going to perform in any given game. We all know good teams tend to play well and bad teams tend to play poorly. But we also all know that these modes of play don’t always occur in NBA arenas. Upsets happen. On any given night, good teams mail in subpar efforts and bad teams catch lighting in a bottle. But worse yet for NBA handicappers are the up and down teams that are downright impossible to predict from one game to the next.

Achieving a level of proficiency at projecting how an NBA team will perform in its next game is the absolute key to handicapping the NBA. Thus, the million dollar question exists: how does one predict an NBA team’s performance in its next game? The answer is easier said than done.

After many years of handicapping this exact subject, I have concluded that most NBA teams are largely unpredictable from one game to the next during the regular season. The main culprit feeding the erratic performance is the voluminous schedule of games over a five month period. The resulting travel, an average of about four games per week, relatively few extended home trips and having to play back-to-back at times all fuel the volatility. Unfortunately for cappers and bettors, this is reality in the NBA handicapping world.

A logical starting point to combat this quandary is to determine if any NBA teams maintain a relatively consistent level of play. The good news is there are consistent NBA teams. The bad news is that these consistent teams are in the minority and therefore not easily detectable.

Matchup Handicapping uses five performance ratings (excellent, good, average, poor and very poor) and these five performance levels hold the key for discovering the teams that merit an acceptable level of consistent play. In fact, the answer is quite obvious.

Over the course of a regular season, the majority of NBA teams reside in the good, average or poor performance cycle. Tracking NBA clubs dating back to the 2004-05 season showed that most teams bounce around between these three performance ratings for most of their games. Consider most NBA squads simply cannot achieve the required superiority to rate as excellent or just don’t play horrendous enough to plummet to the pathetic depths of a very poor rating. Hence, it takes a vigorous and sustained effort to achieve either great or incredibly bad status. In other words, an NBA team has to be very consistent to garner a rating of excellent or very poor.

Years of study have shown that trying to predict the level of play of the NBA majority, namely the Good, the Average and the Poor (not quite the Good, the Bad and the Ugly) can be a largely a losing endeavor. The up and down performance swings add too much uncertainty and take the backers on a wild and tumultuous roller coaster ride that makes picking consistent ATS winners a real hardship.

Most NBA teams go through this up and down performance cycle during a season. For example, someone tell me which Bulls Mavericks, Rockets, Clippers, Heat, Bucks, Hornets, Knicks, Sixers, Suns or Raptors team is likely to take the court in their next outing? How about the Celtics over the past few weeks? Judging on this season’s play to date, the answer is that any accurate prediction for these teams is highly uncertain, with high uncertainty being the real kiss of death to the handicapping effort.

As a consequence, the past few years have lead me to pursue an NBA ATS study that just focuses on the very best and the very worst teams. The rationale is to eliminate the NBA teams whose performance on the court is just too unpredictable. This step effectively removes the majority of the NBA teams from the handicapping effort with the expectation that the handicapping results then become more predictable for the remaining “consistent” teams.

After the purge of the good, average and poor teams, the only NBA teams left are the very best and the very worst. In order for teams to qualify as such, these select teams must perform totally and consistently in an excellent or very poor manner. These teams are not bouncing back and forth between good and bad. Rather, these NBA teams are dominating or being dominated.

For the purposes of my study, I will refer to the very best teams as being in a superior performance mode and the very worst clubs as being in a dismal performance mode. The performance mode is based on a combination of seven performance variables as follows:

1. Winning and losing momentum
Winning momentum is defined as an NBA team that has won outright three of its last four games. Losing momentum is an NBA team that has lost outright three of its last four games.

2. Scoring differential performance
The average scoring differential for a team’s most recent games is computed. Whether this value is exceptional or subpar must be factored in the analysis.

3. Home and road court performance
The average scoring differential for a team’s most recent home or road games is computed. Whether this value is exceptional or subpar must be factored in the analysis.

4. Positive or negative short term performance compared to long term performance
A team’s recent or short term performance is quantified from #s 2 and 3 above and is then compared to its season-to-date or long term performance to determine the extent to which the club is in a positive or negative short term performance mode.

5. Offensive performance
The value is the average points scored over a team’s recent performance. Whether this value is exceptional or subpar must be factored in the analysis.

6. Defensive performance
The value is the average points allowed over a team’s recent performance. Whether this value is exceptional or subpar must be factored in the analysis.

7. The Rest Factor
Whether a team playing back-to-back or with rest must be factored in the analysis.

The above seven variables are combined in my proprietary analysis to yield a result that may qualify a team as being in a superior or dismal performance mode entering their next game.

Future articles will reveal solid winning and losing ATS plays for these select NBA teams. My daily picks for the remainder of the season will focus on these superior and dismal playing teams.

NBA Pointspread Dynamics - Part 1

2010-01-14T13:37:00.002-05:00

The average home court advantage in the NBA is approximately 3.4 points. This number was derived by taking the average of all the home team scoring margins dating back to the 2004-05 season. The results found that NBA home teams outscore their road opponents by an average of 100.2 to 96.8. In addition, NBA home teams have been outright 60.6 percent winners during this time. The stats bear the obvious fact that the home court advantage is alive and well in the NBA.

Simply applying 3.4 points across the board for all home teams is not necessarily an accurate handicapping exercise. In order to further the analysis of the home court edge, the quality of team and the rest factor need to be introduced into the equation, since both certainly influence the NBA betting lines.

The team quality is addressed with the five power rating ranges developed by Matchup Handicapping. The five power rating ranges classify an NBA team's current performance level as excellent, good, average, poor or very poor and the five current performance levels correlate to regular season win totals. An excellent team is playing at a level to win 58 or more games, a good team at a level to win 49-57 games, an average team at a level to win 36-48 games, a poor team at a level to win 22-35 games and a very poor team is playing at a level to win less than 22 games.

The rest factor cannot be ignored when capping the NBA. For example, an NBA team playing on back-to-back (BTB) nights against an opponent that did not play the night before has a definite impact on the posted line. It is no secret that BTB favorites are smaller favorites and BTB dogs are bigger dogs when the opponent was idle the previous day or night.

There are four matchup situations that convey the impact of the rest factor on the NBA pointspread. The first matchup situation finds both opponents rested. For the purpose of this study, an NBA team is considered rested if it did not play the preceding day or night. The second matchup situation is when the home team is rested and opposing a visiting BTB club. The third matchup situation is when the home team is playing BTB opposing a rested road club. The fourth matchup situation is when both teams are playing BTB.

This article will concentrate on the home court advantage for the top teams in the NBA, namely the excellent and good teams. Future Part 2 of this article will address the remaining NBA teams. The tables for the matchup situations show the average score of the contests, the average margin of victory and the average posted line dating back to the 2004-05 season from the home team’s perspective.

Rested Home Team vs. Rested Road Team

Quality         Average Score      Margin       Line

Excellent:      102.4 to 95.0        +7.4          6.9

Good:           100.2 to 95.4       +4.8          4.7

The results show that the excellent teams enjoy the biggest advantage as they win by an average margin of 7.4 points while laying an average of 6.9 points. This equates to getting a half point betting advantage, on average, for the excellent rested home favorite when playing a rested road opponent. Notice the good NBA home teams win by an average of 4.8 points while laying 4.7 points on average. Looks like the linesmaker is dead on with the good home teams.

While this information may be interesting reading material, the key is to extract winning pointspread tendencies. One such trend is as follows: Excellent home favorites coming off an outright loss in their previous game opposing very poor road dogs, with both clubs rested, have covered 20 out of 29 games (69% winners ATS) dating back to the 2004-05 season over the entire pointspread range. This has occurred once so far this season on day 55 and the Celtics covered a 14 point spread against the Timberwolves. Look to play the excellent home favorite in this spot.

The second situation should yield the biggest home court advantage since the home team is rested and the road opponent is BTB status.

Rested Home Team vs. BTB Road Team

Quality         Average Score      Margin      Line

Excellent:      102.9 to 95.3       +7.6          8.3

Good:           103.0 to 95.2       +7.8          6.7

No surprise that the average margins of victory increase. This spot shows the excellent home teams are overpriced by 0.7 points as they are laying 8.3 points on average and winning by only 7.6 points on average. Conversely, the good home teams are laying 1.1 points less than their average margin of victory. Here, backing the good home team is like getting an extra point.

A winning trend finds a good rested home favorite laying 10 or less points has covered 16 of the last 22 when opposing an average road dog playing BTB. Look to play the good home favorite in this spot.

The third situation places the home favorite in a disadvantage since it is playing BTB against its rested road competition.

BTB Home Team vs. Rested Road Team

Quality       Average Score     Margin    Line

Excellent:     100.2 to 94.8      +5.4       5.9

Good:            98.4 to 96.3      +2.1       4.4

These results show that both the excellent and good home teams are typically overpriced by the linesmaker. It appears the sentiment of the betting public is to back the smaller favorites (look too good to be true) even though these home teams are playing BTB versus rested road clubs. The good teams are overpriced by a whopping 2.3 points on average.

A good spot to capitalize on the overlays is to go against the good BTB home favorite when playing against an average rested road dog throughout the entire pointspread range. The BTB home team is a miserable 3 covers versus 10 loss ATS in this spot. Look to play against the good BTB home favorite in this situation.

The fourth situation features both opponents playing BTB.

BTB Home Team vs. BTB Road Team

Quality        Average Score    Margin    Line

Excellent:     103.2 to 95.5       +7.7       6.4

Good:            99.8 to 94.2       +5.6       5.0

This scenario shows the home teams are a good buy for the most part. In particular, the excellent teams are typically winning by 1.3 points more than what they are laying.

BTB excellent home teams following a straight-up victory have covered 9 of the last 10 games when laying 6 or more points to a BTB poor road dog. Look to play the BTB excellent home favorite in this spot.

NBA handicapping requires paying attention to pointspread fluctuations given the quality of team and the rest factor. Hopefully this feature will serve as a solid foundation to this end.

Future article “NBA Pointspread Dynamics – Part 2” will focus on the average, poor and very poor NBA teams.

Gambler’s Fallacy

2009-12-22T10:12:00.001-05:00

Suppose an NBA handicapping method has proven over time to produce 55 percent winners on average per season. If the selections are only posting 50 percent winners halfway through a current season, does this confident handicapping method begin to raise the wager amounts with the belief that 55 percent winners will be achieved at season end? And, future plays would need to win at greater than 55 percent of the time over the remainder of the season to raise the success rate from 50 to 55 percent.

The answer is an unequivocal “NO”. Many emotional cappers and bettors hold to the mistaken belief that the chances of winning increase during losing periods. Sports gamblers on a losing streak suffering from gambler’s fallacy will believe that their next wager will have an increased chance of winning. The reason is that these gamblers believe that they will win in the end; therefore they are more inclined to win the next bet when in the midst of a losing period.

Often times this disastrous thought process leads to larger wagers because sports gamblers feel they are “due” to win. Unfortunately, anyone who believes they are due to win is many times only increasing the probability of losing. Progressive betting schemes are the result of gambler’s fallacy and have caused the ruin of many a gambler.

Gambler’s fallacy fails to realize that the handicapping method is an inanimate entity with no memory. Each pointspread selection is unbiased and unprejudiced and independent of the last. Regardless of the outcome of prior wagers, each and every future bet will have the same 55 percent chance of winning, provided the handicapping method is truly capable of producing 55 percent winners over time.

Gambler’s fallacy is not to be confused with a statistical term called “regression to the mean.” Regression to the mean simply means that if an event has a certain statistical chance of occurring, the event should eventually approach the expected occurrence rate over the long term.

Looking at the graph below, it is seen for this hypothetical series of pointspread plays that during the first 100 or so plays, the winning percentage hovers between 48 and 60 percent. Only after about 225 plays does the winning percentage settle in to the 55% target area.

In plain terms, if an NBA handicapping method can produce 55% winners over time, then regardless of how many winning and losing streaks are encountered along the way, 55% winners should ultimately be achieved at some future point in time. Consequently, a winning handicapping method should eventually post an overall winning record. However, notice the operable terms are “ultimately” and “eventually”.

The inability to understand the difference between gambler’s fallacy and regression to the mean is one of the main reasons why many sports bettors bust their bankrolls long before they would have had any chance of turning a profit for the season. As soon as the wager amounts start to progressively increase during losing periods, gamblers place themselves in imminent danger of going bust. Trust me, the next bet has no compassion for the previous losing ones.

There are two major obstacles with a progressive betting scheme anyway. The first is that Fort Knox is needed to fund the venture since a losing streak will cause the wager amounts to increase dramatically since the objective is to win all the losses back plus show a profit when a winning bet does eventually occur. What happens if the bettor loses ten consecutive bets? Imagine the size of the next wager to recoup the losses.

When you think about it, our federal government could certainly embark on a progressive betting scheme in Vegas aimed at eliminating the federal deficit over time. The U.S. government has access to unlimited funds as it could simply print more money as needed. Such a bank vault could theoretically cover any number of consecutive losing streaks.

Unfortunately, the second obstacle poses a problem for Uncle Sam. Once the wager sizes become too large, the sportsbooks can simply refuse to take the bet. House limits provide the casinos with the ability to cut-off a bet size deemed excessive. Therefore, sportsbooks have built-in protection from colossal money sources involved in progressive stakes.

Sports gambling for any NBA contest is an indisputable, uncertain venture because nobody, and I mean nobody, can predict with any degree of certainty how long of a time period is required to realize the regression to the mean result. Going back to the above graph, who is to say when the 55% winning rate is achieved? It may take 300 to 400 pointspread plays to come true.

This is why Matchup Handicapping holds to the conviction that each bet should be the same wager amount during a betting season. Mission impossible is trying to predict winning and losing periods. It is fact that winning seasons experience losing streaks. It is hard enough picking 55% winners over time. It is impossible to pick 55% winners over every week or every month.

In summary, operating in a gambler’s fallacy mode attempts to predict when the regression to the mean outcome will come true. Unfortunately, the short term gambler’s fallacy will run its course long before the realization of the long term regression to the mean. As I have written many times before, the single biggest mistake made in sports betting is viewing it as a short term prospect.

On the contrary, a successful winning strategy involves a long term and disciplined commitment. You are not running a sprint. You are running a marathon.

The Underachieving Road Dog

2009-12-02T10:19:00.006-05:00

Last season I wrote an article titled “Handicapper’s Dilemma.” In short, it dealt with the fact that handicapping must account for short term failure with longer term success; and, short term success with longer term failure.

For example, consider this season’s Miami Heat squad. Entering last night’s game in Portland, Miami sported a fine 9 win and 6 loss overall record. This represents a solid outright winning percentage of .600 and such a winning rate over an entire season would yield 49 wins and certainly qualify for the playoffs.

However, the overall record becomes murky since the Heat had won only 2 of their last 7 contests. Therefore the handicapping effort must ponder which Heat team will take the court. Certainly a 9 win and 6 loss team rates a lot better than a 2 win and 5 loss club. Here we have an example of short term failure with longer term success.

The paramount question asks is Miami more likely to rebound in a winning effort given their solid overall record, or is the recent stretch of bad play more indicative of how the Heat will perform?

Matchup Handicapping has a method to explore this situation and render a conclusion based on historical pointspread results. As stated in previous articles, Matchup Handicapping develops power ratings for each NBA team based on recent performance. Five power rating ranges are established to project five different performance levels in the NBA and each performance level correlates to regular season win total. Excellent teams are playing at a level to win 58 or more games, good teams at a level to win 49-57 games, average teams at a level to win 36-48 games, poor teams at a level to win 22-35 games and very poor teams at a level to win less than 22 games.

Couple this ability with projecting season end victory totals allows Matchup Handicapping to address the short term failure with longer term success predicament, otherwise known as handicappers’ dilemma.

Back to the Heat game last night, we find the Heat on pace to win 49 games this season by virtue of their season-to-date 9 and 6 slate. Compare this to their recent performance where Miami grades out to a poor NBA team on par to win a meager 30 regular season games (quite a difference in levels of play to say the least).

Past historical pointspread results show that teams such as the Heat, whose recent performance is more than 10 games worse than their overall play, do not play well as a road dog in their next game. Dating back to the 2004-05 NBA season, this situation has presented itself a rather hefty 237 times and the struggling road dog has covered only 97 times for a lousy 40.9% success rate.

This record includes last night’s game where the Heat bucked this trend by not only covering the points but beating Portland outright. Even though this posted a loser for me last night, this is one trend that is worth following given the great number of plays. The trend is 1 win and 1 loss ATS so far this season as back on day 28, the struggling road dog Bulls got hammered by Portland. Last season it held true to form posting a 16 win and 20 loss ATS mark.

Hardly qualifies as a guaranteed winner, but I will look to grab an edge like this one and go against such underachieving road dogs as the situation has yielded over 40 plays a season and nearly a 60% success rate.

Gambler’s Fallacy

2009-11-20T10:15:00.008-05:00

Suppose an NBA handicapping method has proven over time to produce 55 percent winners on average per season. If the selections are only posting 50 percent winners halfway through a current season, does this confident handicapping method begin to raise the wager amounts because the belief is that 55 percent winners will be achieved at season end? Surely, future plays need to win at greater than 55 percent of the time to close out the season to raise the success rate from 50 to 55 percent.

The answer is an unequivocal “no”. Gambler’s fallacy fails to realize that the handicapping method is an inanimate entity with no memory. Each pointspread selection is unbiased and unprejudiced and independent of the last. Regardless of the outcome of prior wagers, each and every future bet will have the same 55 percent chance of winning, provided the handicapping method is truly capable of producing 55 percent winners over time.

Many emotional cappers and bettors hold to the mistaken belief that the chances of winning increase during losing periods. Sports gamblers on a losing streak suffering from gambler’s fallacy will believe that their next wager will have an increased chance of winning. The reason is that these gamblers believe that they have a winning decision making method, therefore they are surely more inclined to win the next bet when in the midst of a losing period.

Often times this disastrous thought process leads to larger wagers because the sports gamblers feel they are “due” to win. Unfortunately, anyone who believes they are due to win are many times only increasing the probability of losing. Progressive betting schemes are the result of gambler’s fallacy and have caused the ruin of many a gambler.

Gambler’s fallacy is not to be confused with a statistical term called “regression to the mean.” Regression to the mean simply means that if an event has a certain percent chance of occurring, over the long term, the event should eventually approach the expected occurrence rate.

In plain terms, if an NBA handicapping method can produce 55% winners over time, then regardless of how many winning and losing streaks are encountered, 55% winners should ultimately be achieved at some future point in time. Thus, eventually and ultimately a winning handicapping method should turn an overall winning record. Notice the operable terms are “eventually” and “ultimately”.

The reason that sports gambling for any individual contest is an indisputable uncertain venture is because nobody can predict with any certainty how long of a time period is required to realize the regression to the mean result. This explains why winning handicappers experience losing periods.

Operating in a gambler’s fallacy mode attempts to predict when the regression to the mean outcome will come true. Unfortunately, the short term gambler’s fallacy will run its course long before the realization of the long term regression to the mean.

As I have written many times before, the single biggest mistake made in sports betting is viewing it as a short term prospect. On the contrary, a successful winning strategy involves a long term and disciplined commitment.

NBA Pointspread Ranges

2009-11-19T14:32:00.002-05:00

Each NBA game features a matchup of two teams that have been evaluated on their recent performance. Each team’s evaluation is assigned to one of five performance classes as discussed in previous articles. Then, the game matchup is analyzed within the actual pointspread range.

Inclusion of the pointspread range locks in the matchup as it is perceived by the betting public and the linesmaker. I view this step as an absolute requirement because I maintain for any betting trend or tendency to have any credibility, it must factor in the applicable pointspread range.

Matchup Handicapping mostly uses a three, four or five point pointspread range per NBA game. For example, if the Suns are favored by 8 over the Hornets, the applicable pointspread range would fall somewhere between 6.5 to 9.5, 6 to 10 or 5.5 and 10.5 points. The actual range is determined by the number of games and historical ATS results.

The greater the frequency of plays for the matchup, the more the applicable range is three points. The four and five point ranges are used for the less frequent occurrences to generate more historical ATS results.

When an NBA Team Comes Roaring Back

2009-11-12T15:17:00.004-05:00

A common target among cappers and bettors is an NBA team coming off a straight-up loss following a string of consecutive straight-up victories. One popular belief says to back this team in its very next game to take advantage of its ability to get right back on the winning track. Following some research in true Matchup Handicapping fashion, I will share with you some interesting findings.

Consider an NBA team that is coming off a straight-up loss in its last game after having won at least three games in a row. This team is now on the road and getting points against an opponent that has losing momentum as defined by Matchup Handicapping; that is, the opponent has lost three or four of its last four games straight-up.

This situation on the surface appears to be a rather healthy play in that the dog has been outplaying the favorite in recent competition. So how does this road dog respond? This road dog is a sweet play as it comes roaring back ATS with 29 covers against only 12 defeats dating back to the 04-05 season. Not only has it covered 70.7% ATS, this road dog has won this encounter outright 50% of the time. This is an example of a truly live dog.

I will look to pounce on this situation this NBA season when it presents itself.

In case you are asking, home dogs don’t behave in the same winning manner. An NBA home dog coming off a straight-up loss following at least three consecutive outright wins opposing a road favorite with losing momentum has only covered 2 of the last 8 games dating back to the 04-05 season. In fact if you eliminate the excellent home dogs, the rest of the pack is a perfect 0 for 6 versus the spread.

I will be writing additional “When an NBA Team Comes Roaring Back” articles in the future.

New Season

2009-10-23T10:24:00.003-04:00

Hopefully I am welcoming back last year's followers. The new NBA season starts next week and I am eager to get started. Please note that my picks will not begin until about the third week of the season. Matchup Handicapping needs the results of real games (not pre-season) to measure the performance levels in an accurate manner before it jumps into the fray.

Another problem with early season games deals with new players on NBA teams. For example, a change in one starter represents a 20% change to the team offense and defense while the starters are on the court. New players can have a much more significant impact in the NBA as compared to the NFL.

I will be posting new articles shortly.

Feel free to visit my NFL site. The link is to the left.

2008-09 NBA Handicapping Summary

2009-06-15T07:28:00.013-04:00

Final Season Record: 140 wins and 118 losses (54.3%, +10.2 units) (unit = 5% of starting bankroll, bankroll has grown 51.0% over six month period) See monthly tally below.

This site record shows a true profit since all the selections were free (no credit card numbers required). Also, I do not use the hook slide.

A pointspread summary to consider for the 2008-09 NBA season shows that favorites of over 9 points were an overall losing proposition. Home favorites of more than 9 had 105 wins against 117 losses ATS for 47.3% winners. Road favorites of more than 9 covered only 10 of 27 for a meager 37.0% winning mark.

However, the prior 2007-08 NBA season showed the opposite. Home favorites of 9 or more had 134 wins against 113 losses ATS for 54.3% winners. Road favorites of 9 or more covered 16 of 27 for a solid 59.3% winning mark.

Ah, the uncertainty of it all keeps us coming back for more. I will be back next NBA season. Look for more NBA articles to start appearing in October.

June Record: 1 win and 0 losses

May Record: 3 wins and 3 losses

April Record: 14 wins and 7 losses
Best Winning Streak: 8 wins and 1 loss (Apr.15-30)
Worst Losing Streak: 2 wins and 3 losses (Apr. 10-13)
March Record: 26 wins and 30 losses
Best Winning Streak: 7 wins and 2 losses (Mar. 26-31)
Worst Losing Streak: 0 wins and 7 losses (Mar. 7-11)

February Record: 18 wins and 22 losses
Best Winning Streak: 5 wins and 2 losses (Feb. 1-4)
Worst Losing Streak: 2 wins and 7 losses (Feb. 6-11)

January Record: 27 wins and 21 losses
Best Winning Streak: 8 wins and 1 loss (Jan. 21-29)
Worst Losing Streak: 2 wins and 6 losses (Jan. 3-7)

December Record: 26 wins and 21 losses
Best Winning Streak: 8 wins and 1 loss (Dec. 20-23)
Worst Losing Streak: o wins and 4 losses (Dec. 9-11)

November Record: 25 wins and 14 losses
Best Winning Streak: 8 wins and 0 losses (Nov. 25-30)
Worst Losing Streak: 2 wins and 7 losses (Nov. 16-19)

NEWS

2009-06-12T09:36:00.003-04:00

The NFL blog site is up and running. To visit, just click on link to left. Hope you enjoy.

I will be back here on Sunday for Game 5.

Note

2009-06-05T15:20:00.001-04:00

Back on Sunday for the second game.

My NFL blog site will be up and running early next week. Details will follow.

First Two Games of the NBA Finals

2009-06-04T08:47:00.000-04:00

In the last four NBA finals dating back to the 2004-05 season, the home team favorite has not only won and covered in the first game, but has also won and covered in the second game. The Celtics were actually a home dog to the Lakers in their second game last season.

Based on the recent performance of the last four seasons, I believe that all the trend cappers and bettors will be all over the Lakers in game one. If the Lakers win and cover game one, the trend cappers and bettors will be all over the Lakers again in game two.

Matchup handicapping does not factor in this type of betting trend because it has no direct significance in how well each team is playing at the time of the contest. I view such a betting trend as a short term coincidence not worthy of a reason to make a pointspread play.

If you are going to play the Lakers in game one or two of this series, my advice is not to allow the above trend to be the primary decision maker.

Consider that in the four seasons between 2000-01 and 2003-04, the home favorite actually lost twice outright and covered only one of the four opening games. Game Two had the home favorite with a 3-1 SU record and a 1-2-1 ATS mark.

The Bounce

2009-06-02T11:31:00.006-04:00

About twenty years or so ago, I read a handicapping article that coined the term “bounce” regarding beating the pointspread. As much as I want to credit the author and publication, I do not remember the name of either, no disrespect intended to either.

The author back then defined the bounce as when a team does an abrupt about face from its current performance level. For example, an NBA team on a roll suddenly lays an egg leaving its backers in a wake of losses. Playing the bounce clearly defies conventional wisdom as it involves playing against a hot team. Learning how to handicap a bounce play can reap large dividends for the knowledgeable bettor.

Matchup Handicapping embarked on a fact finding mission with the purpose of identifying pointspread situations based on the bounce philosophy. The first step was to acknowledge the fact that hot NBA road dogs present the best bounce plays. The reason is somewhat obvious in that if a team is going to suddenly put forth a bad outing, it is more likely to occur in another team’s arena in an underdog role. Therefore, the handicapping effort is directed towards finding when hot road clubs suddenly fall from grace in a hostile environment and bounce back to reality.

Consider the Philadelphia 76ers visiting the New Orleans Hornets on day 91 of the 2008-09 NBA regular season. The Sixers were getting three points against a solid home Hornets club. Matchup Handicapping rated the Sixers as an excellent road dog and the Hornets as a good home favorite for the contest. Having won eight of their last nine games, including three consecutive wins on the road, the Sixers were on a roll.

Many cappers and bettors focus on how well teams perform at home or on the road. For this game, cappers would point to the Sixers as being a solid road dog play based on recent road performance. Moreover, Philly’s average score differential over their last four road games was an impressive +7.0 points. Add to this that they were three point dogs, the Sixers rated +10.0 points (7+3) with their recent road performance using some simple, yet effective math. This +10.0 points will be termed the road rating.

At this juncture, the Sixers are obviously a hot road dog entering this game. The question is, do they qualify for a bounce? Using the road rating value for the study, it was discovered that a road rating of +9.0 or more qualifies a team for the bounce. As discussed above, the road rating is simply the average score differential over a team’s last four road games added to the pointspread.

Our Sixers example shows the Sixers with a +10.0 road rating, therefore they qualify for the bounce. But, historical pointspread findings show that the bounce occurs mainly for excellent or good road dogs as determined by Matchup Handicapping. Average or worse NBA teams do not exhibit strong bounce tendencies. Since the Sixers were rated excellent, the bounce play is in order for this contest.

Dating back to the 2004-05 NBA season, excellent and good road dogs that won their last game and have a +9.0 points or better road rating have 130 wins versus 168 losses ATS. This is a rather remarkably poor 43.6% over 298 plays in five NBA seasons. These totals equate to almost 60 plays on average per NBA season. This seems too good to be true.

And yes the Sixers did not disappoint as they got drilled 101 to 86.

Once again, I credit the long ago author for the term “bounce,” and I sincerely hope the author is alive and well and still picking winners.

Upcoming

2009-05-31T10:34:00.005-04:00

I will be posting two more basketball articles this week before the final series begins on Thursday.

Also, I will be unveiling preliminary information for my upcoming NFL handicapping blog site.

Updated Season to Date: 139 wins and 118 losses (54.1%, +9.2 units) (unit = 5% of starting bankroll, bankroll has grown 46.0% over six month period)

NBA Playoff Teams with Swagger

2009-05-26T09:38:00.001-04:00

A team with swagger is one that has developed an aura of superiority born from a current streak of dominating the opposition. Such a team demands to win and is not satisfied with simply being good; but rather it is on a crusade to become great. The swagger manifests itself on the hardwood resulting in superior play combined with a super blend of confidence, intimidation, aggression and arrogance to achieve the killer instinct, aka the formula of champions.

Handicappers are always in search of recognizing teams that exhibit this winning edge because many times these formidable clubs blowout the opposition leading to comfortable pointspread victories. Speaking as a handicapper, I can absolutely attest to the fact that there is nothing like the satisfaction of being on the right side of a thoroughly dominating performance.

I use three criteria to determine whether an NBA team has achieved the swagger mode. Decisive home court advantage, winning momentum and being in the midst of a significant improved level of play are the requirements. Matchup Handicapping provides the statistical analysis to qualify the three noted criteria.

Decisive home court advantage is defined as one team being significantly better than its opponent based on the venue. For example, a team with a recent history of impressive play at home hosting a team with recent struggles on the road would qualify the home squad with decisive home court advantage. Since Matchup Handicapping uses team power ratings, a rule of thumb is the home team’s power rating over its most recent home games is at least ten points better than the opposing road dog’s power rating over its most recent road contests. Nothing intimidates an opponent more than finding itself in a hostile environment facing a superior club.

Winning momentum is readily defined by a team that has won three or four of its last four games outright including its last game. This is a team that is accustom to beating its opposition and carries the winning attitude and expectation into its next contest.

A previous article titled “Handicapper’s Dilemma” quantifies how an NBA team is playing at a significant improved level of play over recent games as compared to the team’s season to date performance. The article can be found under the “Mining for NBA Gold” label. A quick summary of the article follows:

Matchup Handicapping develops power ratings for each NBA team based on recent performance. Five power rating ranges are established to project five different performance levels in the NBA and each performance level correlates to an 82 game regular season win total. Excellent teams are playing at a level to win 58 or more games, good teams at a level to win 49-57 games, average teams at a level to win 36-48 games, poor teams at a level to win 22-35 games and very poor teams at a level to win less than 22 games.

The object is to compare the projected win total from short term or recent performance to the projected win total from the longer term or season to date actual win total. If an NBA team’s projected win total based on its recent performance is at least ten wins greater than its projected win total from its actual season to date wins than this team qualifies as an NBA team in the midst of a significant improved level of play.

Dating back to the 2004-05 NBA playoff season, a strong pointspread play shows for a playoff home favorite that meets the three conditions to achieve swagger. These imposing home favorites have 28 covers versus 18 defeats ATS for a profitable 60.9% winners. This 2008-09 playoff season has held true to the winning form as it has produced five winners against three losers ATS.

NBA Playoff Teams with Winning Momentum

2009-05-15T14:38:00.003-04:00

Winning teams in the NBA have developed an attitude that gives them the edge on the hardwood to handle adversity and put forth the necessary effort to get the best of the opposition on a consistent basis. Such teams feel really good about themselves and have captured a contagious winning spirit. A general rule in handicapping is that when in doubt, side with an NBA club that exhibits winning momentum, rather than back a club that is mired in a losing cycle.

An easy, yet effective measure of determining winning momentum is to look at an NBA team’s straight-up record over its last four games. In Matchup Handicapping, any NBA team that has won three or four of its last four games outright qualifies as a team with winning momentum. The next step is to find out if there is any correlation between winning momentum and pointspread success in the NBA playoffs.

A strong winning tendency ATS reveals itself when considering home favorites with winning momentum. In the NBA playoffs dating back to the 2000-01 season, home favorites with winning momentum have compiled 146 wins against 109 losses ATS for a neat 57.2% mark.

However, this result includes opposition that may also be playing with winning momentum. If opponents that also have winning momentum are excluded, NBA home favorites with winning momentum in the playoffs have achieved 97 wins against 66 losses ATS for a much improved 59.5% success rate.

This season is holding true as home favorites with winning momentum have 9 covers out of fourteen games. So, why you ask have I not made any plays based on this terrific winning trend? The answer is that I just discovered this piece of winning information.

While none of the teams playing in this Sunday’s two game sevens have winning momentum, I will certainly be on high alert status for this situation for the remainder of the playoffs.

NBA Playoffs - The Game After a Strong Favorite Loses Outright

2009-05-07T13:46:00.007-04:00

It is well accepted among handicappers (and the betting public) that when a strong favorite is upset, particularly in front of its home fans, its next effort will be a guaranteed solid one. I agree that such thinking is valid, but the linesmaker is also well aware of this concept. It is fact that an NBA team coming off an upset often times becomes pricier to back in its next game. An example is easily seen in the NBA playoffs when a home favorite loses the opening game of a series straight-up and then finds itself a slightly higher favorite in its must win game two.

A pointspread study is in order to analyze historical results to determine how these vengeful playoff teams perform ATS in their next game. For the purpose of this study, the first step is to differentiate a strong home favorite from an ordinary or average one. Consider a comfortable win is by two or more possessions, so laying six or more points qualifies an NBA squad as a strong favorite. Therefore, a straight-up (SU) defeat by an NBA team favored by six or more is considered an upset.

Dating back to the 2000-01 NBA playoff season through the first two games of this season’s second round, there have been twenty occurrences when a home favorite of six or more losses outright in the NBA playoffs. These teams have rebounded in their very next game to the tune of winning sixteen out of twenty games SU. If the next game was again at home, the SU record stands at nine wins and one loss. If the next game was on the road, these teams have compiled 7 wins and 3 losses SU. Regardless of the venue, these NBA teams come back strong to get the outright win 80% of the time. Grab the money line if available is sure a thought. This season, the Celtics, Magic and Lakers have all rebounded from upsets at home to win their next games SU in front of their home fans.

From a pointspread perspective, these twenty games show ten wins, nine losses and one push ATS for these teams seeking revenge. Based on this record, there does not appear to be much of an advantage in playing these teams ATS in their next games. However, Matchup handicapping has engaged in a more in-depth analysis to yield a solid winning situation ATS.

If these home upsets occur in the first or third game of a series, then the next game is also at home for the upset team. One might think that right back in front of the home fans would be just what the doctor ordered to provide maximum motivation towards extracting vengeance from the “content” road opponent and it would carry over to a solid pointspread play. Well, think again. While this home favorite has won the next game SU nine out of ten times, it has covered only three of nine contests with one push. Hardly a solid pointspread play is offered in this position. The three playoff occurrences this season show one win (Lakers) and two losses (Celtics and Magic) ATS.

When these teams coming off an upset at home play their next game on the road, quite the opposite takes hold regarding the pointspread results. NBA playoff teams on the road following an upset at home as six or more point favorites in their last game, have covered seven out of ten contests. Moreover, using the Matchup Handicapping rating method, the ATS record jumps to seven wins against only one loss if only average or better road teams are considered. It does not matter whether the road team is a favorite (four wins and one loss ATS) or dog (three wins and no losses).

If cappers and bettors are wise to stay away from poor and very poor road teams in this situation, seven out of eight successes certainly constitute a solid pointspread posture. It is certainly worth a look for the remainder of this season’s playoffs.

NBA Playoffs - Avoid Forcing the Action

2009-05-04T12:22:00.003-04:00

The exciting part of the NBA playoffs is that each series is an elimination round. Every playoff game takes on meaning, since every loss finds a team one step closer to extinction. Having watched countless NBA playoff games, the level of play is highly energized as the teams are faced with the ultimate motivation of the do or die consequence.

Needless to say, NBA playoff fever spreads throughout the sports betting world. Since every game is large, I believe I am accurate in stating that there is a noticeable increase in the betting action during the playoff season. While this time is certainly exciting for any pro hoop fan, a large trap with far reaching tentacles is lurking around each and every contest. Cappers and bettors must fight off the temptation of having to play every “big” game. The need to show up for every big game is a sure-fire formula for losing precious amounts of the bankroll.

My NBA playoff handicapping philosophy is very simple: proceed with caution and pick the spots wisely. Think quality, not quantity. The game plan is to build the regular season ending bankroll, not to give it away. All gamblers should realize that many of the best bets are the ones that are never laid.

NBA Playoffs - Game Seven Home Favorites

2009-05-04T12:20:00.006-04:00

While the most exciting two minutes in sports goes to the Kentucky Derby, the most exciting forty-eight minutes is a deciding game seven of an NBA playoff series.

Besides individual player awards, the grueling 82 game regular season determines playoff seeding and home court advantages for the playoffs. I have often heard players and coaches exclaim “you play the entire season to get the home court advantage in a game seven.” That is quite an investment in time and effort for any team to gain this one game apparent advantage. It would sure seem like a big waste if the home team lost a game seven.

Going back to the 2000-01 NBA playoffs, the record shows that home favorites in a deciding game seven have won the game outright 18 of 24 times. This equates to a straight-up winning percentage of 75% and I certainly conclude that playing well during the NBA regular season to gain home court advantage for the playoffs is well worth the effort.

What happens in these pivotal game sevens when the pointspread comes into play? Going back to the 2000-01 NBA playoffs, the record shows that home favorites in a deciding game seven have covered 15 out of 24 times for a compelling 62.5% winners ATS.

These records include the Celtics and Hawks winning and covering their respective game sevens this past weekend. On the surface, it appears that the home chalk is the obvious side in any game seven, but Matchup Handicapping as it often does, studied the matter in greater detail and uncovered an interesting twist with this situation.

As with the regular season, Matchup Handicapping develops power ratings for each NBA playoff team based on recent performance. Five power rating ranges are established to project five different performance levels in the NBA. Each playoff team is classified as excellent, good, average, poor or very poor.

NBA teams rated excellent and good represent the teams that are playing at the top of their games over their most recent performances. These top caliber teams do not disappoint as game seven home favorites as these squads have covered 8 of the last 10 ATS. This means that the NBA game seven home chalks rated average or worse have covered only 7 of the last 14 ATS for a very unremarkable 50% win margin ATS.

The reasonable conclusion is to back game seven home favorites rated good or excellent. Be wary of the game seven home chalks rated average or worse.

Handicapping the NBA Playoffs

2009-04-21T07:47:00.002-04:00

Two critical factors in Matchup Handicapping are whether teams win or lose their last game and how teams have performed over their last three to five contests. How an NBA team performed in its last game is certainly weighed by the linesmaker and the betting public. It also affects how an NBA team prepares and plays its next game. For example, a good club following a SU loss usually comes out for its next game with a killer attitude to erase the feeling of defeat and get back on the winning track. In addition, effectively measuring an NBA team’s performance over its most recent games provides handicappers with an accurate real time snapshot of how well a team is playing entering its next contest.

The end of the NBA regular season finds some teams battling to make the playoffs or improve their playoff position, while other squads have locked themselves into playoff spots and coast the final week of the season. Due to the different motivational factors, handicapping the NBA teams at the end of the regular season can be a difficult task, especially when trying to project a team’s playoff readiness. Consequently, handicappers should view the NBA playoffs as the start of a new season and somewhat of a discontinuation of the regular season.

Since the final games of the regular season find some NBA teams simply playing out the string, how teams fared in their most recent games at the end of the regular season is not necessarily an accurate indicator entering the playoffs. For this very reason, Matchup Handicapping proceeds with great caution for the opening games of each first round series. In fact, this season showed no plays. While some may look at the lack of action as disappointing, I look at it as a winning, patient strategy.

After the opening games of the first round have been decided, the teams know they are in a war of survival, with some one game closer to extinction. All of a sudden, some teams find themselves in a desperation mode following a loss, particularly the home squads. The teams are totally committed to do whatever it takes to survive the round and move on to a future opponent. This is the point where handicapping the NBA playoffs begin.

For the playoffs, Matchup Handicapping continues to establish five power rating ranges to project five different performance levels in the NBA. The five power rating ranges classify an NBA team's current performance level as either excellent, good, average, poor or very poor for any given game.

Consider the following situation that finds an average home favorite that lost its last playoff game being favored by three or more. The average classification for a home favorite shows a team that is not exactly setting the league on fire as its recent performance is best described as inconsistent mediocrity. Such a club was last night’s San Antonio Spurs who aptly fit this description. No doubt many cappers and bettors were questioning whether the desperate Spurs could cover the 6.5 point number against a solid Mavs club.

Since the 2000-01 playoffs, this average home chalk has covered a commanding 40 times out of 62 games ATS for a terrific 64.5% winning mark. The Spurs did not disappoint as they soundly defeated the Mavs by a score of 105 to 84 and raised the bar to 41 covers out of 63 games for this situation. Actually, last night’s pick went a step further as it included the Mavs portion of the matchup. Namely, the Spurs were an average home favorite that lost its last game versus a good road dog that won its last game within a 5 to 8 pointspread range. This situation has now covered 13 of the last 17 games for an astounding 76.5% winning mark.

In summary, the NBA playoffs will present cappers and bettors with solid pointspread opportunities, but the operable plan of action is patience. The playoffs are not the time to force plays in order to play catch up, or to promote the feeling that one must have action on every big game.

End of Regular Season Report

2009-04-16T08:41:00.003-04:00

The end of the regular season finds my pointspread record at 130 wins versus 114 losses for a 53.3% winning mark. Granted, this percentage falls short of my target goal of 54-58% winners, but nontheless, it brings home a profitable NBA regular season. With a 10% juice, my record shows a +4.6 units.

From previous articles, my wager guideline is to begin with a starting bankroll and divide this money by 20. This amount is the betting unit to be used throughout the entire NBA season. Thus, +4.6 units corresponds to a +23% return (4.6/20) on the starting bankroll over a 5-6 month period.

Remember, betting on the NBA is a season long journey. There will be a multitude of winning and losing streaks and the key to winning is maintaining the same wager amount per game over the entire season. Matchup Handicapping offers the "house advantage" to provide the winning margin over time.

I will be back on Saturday to start the NBA playoff handicapping. The season is not over yet.

Handicapper's Dilemma

2009-04-09T14:19:00.002-04:00

All NBA teams go through a series of hot and cold streaks during their 82 game regular season schedule. The better teams have the majority of the hot streaks and the bad teams seem to be constantly in the midst of losing streaks. In a stable NBA atmosphere, the better teams are playing well and the bad teams are playing poorly. As long as this status quo is maintained, handicappers remain in their comfort zone.

But what happens when the handicapping world is thrust into chaos? Good teams suddenly find themselves in a rough stretch and bad teams get on a good role. In any given NBA week, there are good teams having a bad week and bad teams having a good week . For whatever reasons, these teams cast their “real” identities aside and assume their opposite counterpart - a Dr. Jekyll and Mr. Hyde if you will. Handicappers are confronted with the question “which team is it anyway?”

Handicapping must account for short term failure with longer term success; and, short term success with longer term failure. In other words, an analysis is needed that factors both the short and long term performance of NBA teams when the two performance levels appear to be somewhat contradictory. I call this the “handicappers’ dilemma.” Take for example this year’s Detroit Pistons. On day 123 of the NBA season, the Pistons were playing their fourth of five consecutive road games against the powerful Magic with the Celtics on the horizon. Detroit had lost eight games in a row straight-up. The outlook appeared bleak indeed for this very poor Pistons team with their miserable recent exploits and a daunting two games before them.

Detroit responded by not only beating Orlando and Boston outright, but the Pistons returned home and reeled off two more wins against the Nuggets and Warriors. Their next game was in Atlanta against a solid Hawks squad and the linesmaker installed the Pistons as a 2 point dog. Cappers had to be asking which Pistons team would show up in Atlanta. Would it be the four wins in a row surging Pistons, or was this simply a flash in the pan and would the downtrodden Pistons of previous weeks reappear? Talk about a handicapping dilemma.

As stated in previous articles, Matchup Handicapping develops power ratings for each NBA team based on recent performance. Five power rating ranges are established to project five different performance levels in the NBA and each performance level correlates to a full regular season win total. Excellent teams are playing at a level to win 58 or more games, good teams at a level to win 49-57 games, average teams at a level to win 36-48 games, poor teams at a level to win 22-35 games and very poor teams at a level to win less than 22 games.

The ability to project season end victory totals allows Matchup Handicapping to address the handicappers’ dilemma. For the Pistons example, Detroit’s performance entering the Hawks game met the definition of a short term success (last four games) with longer term failure. The short term analysis showed the red hot Pistons suddenly playing at a level to win 56 games. Conversely, their long term performance, or season to date record, projected to 42 wins over the complete regular season. Thus, the long and short of it shows a mediocre 42 win club now playing at a 56 win level. The short term win projection is 14 more than the win projection based on actual season to date wins and is deemed a significant short term improvement.

Research of historical ATS results showed a very interesting take on this Hawks-Pistons contest. Many cappers subscribe to the theory of playing on winning streaks and against losing streaks. Following this strategy, the Pistons would be the play to continue their winning ways. However, history shows this is a losing proposition more times than not.

Average or better NBA road dogs that won their last game straight-up and whose short term projected win total is greater than 10 compared to their projected win total based on season to date have covered 98 games against 123 losses ATS dating back to the 2004-05 season. This shows that red hot teams like the Pistons only cover 44% of their games as a road dog. Detroit was close but lost the game by four and failed to cover.

Not to complicate this issue, but more detail is needed to properly study this occurrence. A short term win projection that differs from the win projection for season to date is deemed significant if the difference is 10 or more. Furthermore, Matchup Handicapping subdivides the categories into six distinct groups for better accuracy in studying historical ATS results. I recognize that there are definitely varying degrees of hot and cold streaks. To simply lump them into a single hot or cold streak would not produce an accurate assessment.

The six categories are as follows: +10, +20, +30, -10, -20, and -30. +10 means that the NBA team has a short term win projection of more than ten, but less than twenty, as compared to its win projection from season to date. This is the category for the Pistons example. -10 means that the NBA team has a short term win projection that is between ten and twenty less than its win projection from season to date. +20 is a win total difference between 20 and 30, etc. Plus categories are the hot teams and negative ones represent the cold teams. The greater the number, the hotter or colder is the team.

Another strong tendency presents itself when an average home dog is on a +10 hot streak having lost its last game straight-up. Since this club is now rated average, it was probably a poor club before the streak. The question is will this team rebound from its loss and stay hot enough to cover the number or will it fold like a house of cards and loss the game straight-up and ATS.

It is found that this home dog has covered only 24 of the last 68 games in this situation for a paltry 35% winning mark. This season, the home dog has continued the losing trend by covering only 3 of 9 ATS. This home dog is a Cinderella and the clock is tolling twelve midnight.

I am continuing my research for this short and long term interaction as I believe it will have a positive effect towards picking consistent pointspread winners. Future articles will share more winning information regarding the long and short of hot and cold streaks.

The Hook Slide

2009-04-06T12:54:00.011-04:00

All NBA games have an opening line. It is sometimes released the night before, known as the overnight line. This is the linesmaker’s best estimate to entice equal action on both sides. As accurate as the linesmaker is at setting the initial line, there is obviously no guarantee that equal action will follow for every game. To overcome this uncertainty, sportsbooks have the capacity to adjust the line, usually in half-point increments, right up to game time to keep the action balanced to the greatest extent possible.

The biggest line adjustment usually occurs right after the opening line is released. It is said that many professional gamblers will see great value in some early lines and they want to get their money placed before the line moves against them. Sportsbooks often use this first round of activity to fine-tune the pointspreads. After this adjustment period, the lines in most NBA games stabilize to a large degree. This frequently happens before many cappers and bettors even begin to look at the games on the betting card.

Yes, you will see half-point differentials in Vegas and offshore books throughout the day. There are times you may even see a full point differential, but this is usually over a very short time occurrence. When shopping for the best line, the key for bettors is to guess when the line is affording them the maximum value. For example, a bettor wants to back the Cavs and the accessible lines have the Cavs at -8 or -8.5. If the bettor feels that -8 is going to be the best line available throughout the day, the bettor places the bet at -8. This is not to say that the line couldn’t move to -7.5 at some point later.

There is a general rule that says if you are going to play favorites, get the action down early. Conversely, if you are going to play dogs, get the action down late. Consider the logic in this process. If early money goes on the favorites, then the books will obviously increase the points for the dogs to get the equal action. However, like everything else in life there are no guarantees that this will hold true for any given game. In fact, many games will do the direct opposite. Hence, the term is gambling.

On numerous occasions, I have heard and read comments from professional handicappers who claim that “while shopping for the best line is prudent, a half point difference (referred to as a hook) here and there over the long haul should balance out, therefore it should not have a significant impact on winning and losing.” Moreover, many pro cappers have often stated that if a half point is going to make the difference between winning and losing, one should not be in the sports betting business.

On the surface, I totally agree with this viewpoint. Due to the total randomness of how a sports contest could play out, there are certainly heavy doses of good and bad luck associated with sports betting. We all have experienced the agonizing half point defeats and the exhilarating half point victories ATS. They are inevitable. We can only hope that the half point margins balance out over time.

Unfortunately, there are many professional cappers who take an unfair advantage of an unsuspecting public with their half point tactics. This sleight of hand is accomplished when pro cappers release their plays by just giving the side or the over or under. By not listing a specific pointspread or total associated with the games, this allows them the opportunity to grab a half point should they need it to convert a loss to a push or a push to a win. In other words, they are not going to lose a game by a half point. If the bettor lost the game by a half point, the capper maintains that it is the bettor’s fault for not getting the best line.

Another approach is for a capper to simply post the best line or total that occurred during the day which reflects the best value for them, even though that number may have been the opening line and is no longer available at the time of the release. What good is this line if the bettors can't get it? Sometimes this practice can give cappers a full point advantage at their disposal. Such tactics are trickery. I refer to this unscrupulous practice as the “hook slide.”

So how much of an advantage is the hook slide? Over the past few NBA seasons, about 8% of all the games fall within a point of the posted line. Therefore, for every 100 NBA games released by a handicapper, there will be approximately 8 games available for the hook slide.

Now, let’s assume my 85 year old mother, who is still quite sharp of mind I may add, wants to become a professional NBA handicapper (hypothetically of course). Although she really doesn’t know anything about any of the NBA teams, she knows the pointspread theoretically makes every game appear equal. Therefore, she picks the games by flipping a coin – heads selects a play for the home team and tails for the road team. She figures the odds are 50-50 for every game and if she picks 205 NBA games her ATS record will be about 100 wins and 100 losses with 5 pushes.

Obviously, 50% winners are a losing proposition in the sports betting world due to the vigorish. If 10% juice is used for my mom’s plays, she winds up with -10 units. Since I advocate a betting strategy that starts with a bankroll of 20 units, my mom’s performance would effectively reduce the starting bankroll by 50% by season end. Needless to say, my mom is not too happy with the prospect of finishing this much in the red and therefore decides to exit the business.

Let’s say there is another handicapper who made the same exact 205 plays as my mom. But, the difference is that this capper readily employs the hook slide tactic. Therefore, the 5 push games become wins with the half point slide and another 5 losses result in pushes with the half point slide. Doing the math for the affected ten games, the hook slide converts the modified ATS record to 105 wins and 95 losses with 5 pushes. The bottom line is now +0.5 units which is a huge improvement over -10 units.

The hook slide allows a convenient way for cappers to dupe the betting public about their ATS record. You can readily see that handicappers only need about 50% winners ATS when picking 200 to 300 NBA games to have a winning season when using the hook slide. This is an all too common handicapping scam and there appears no way to prevent its continued use.

Handicapper's Note

2009-03-26T15:20:00.013-04:00

I am continuing my review of the vegasinsider.com NBA handicapping records and it is very obvious that these professional handicappers are taking great liberty with the pointspreads in selected games. Consider the fact that there are 17 cappers on the site with plus units for the season and these same 17 cappers have a total of 28 push games. I inspected the lines and totals that these guys are posting for these push games and compared it to the lines and totals that I had for those games. Again, my lines and totals are the consensus of the offshore books in the mid to late afternoon hours.

Amazingly, if these cappers had used my lines and totals, they would have lost 27 of 28 games ATS between them in these push games. Let me repeat this stat: 1 cover versus 27 losses ATS if they used the consensus line of the offshore books in the mid to late afternoon hours. Granted, there are line movements in some games right up to game time. But to have all these cappers with the extra hook in 27 of these 28 games clearly shows that they are distorting their winning percentages. For example, the top guy on the list has taken 6 pushes that I show as losses ATS.

And, this is only the beginning. There are many more games that these cappers are declaring victory ATS when in fact many of these games should have been pushes or even losses. The lesson to be learned is don't ever believe a professional handicapper that tells you that a half point here or there doesn't matter significantly over the long haul. Nothing could be further from the truth.

These cappers don't want you to know what a great advantage an extra half or full point swing can do for their handicapping record over the course of a season. They quietly bolster their win loss record before an unsuspecting public. If you call them on it, their BS response is for bettors to shop for the best line. Trust me, the best handicappers in the world don't always get the best line, certainly not 27 of 28 times. The reality is most bettors don't have access to numerous sportsbooks and nobody knows when the line actually peaks for any given game.

My reason for posting a line is that I want to show a definitive win or loss. I want to avoid the common ploy among handicappers where they post their selections without the pointspread in order to afford them the luxury to grab an extra half or whole point if they need it for a win or push. I choose not to play this way.

Between the multitude of Vegas and offshore books, a capper or bettor can always find a game that has a half point to a full point advantage towards their side at some point during the day. Unfortunately, the reality is that the majority of bets are not neccessarly getting the best number. The pro cappers are taking liberties with the line moves throughout the day to bolster their stated winnings.

There are probably 10 to 15 games at a minimum in an NBA season where cappers could exercise the extra half or full point advantage to rescue a victory from the jaws of defeat. This alone would provide +20 to +30 units per season. Beware the cappers that employ such tactics. Their record is not as good as they claim.

My record stands as stated. I will continue to pick my games with a posted line, even though this will put me at a distinct disadvantage with the professionals on the vegasinsider.com site. Heck, with another 20-30 units, I would be right at the top of the standings.

Handicapper's Note

2009-03-19T08:30:00.006-04:00

After a more thorough review of the vegasinsider.com website, I have discovered that the professional cappers on that site are playing by different rules than by yours truly. Two games this past week are of note. On Saturday I had the Clippers +12.5 and they lost to Denver by 13. The cappers on the other website that played on the Clippers had them at +13.5 or +14, therefore those cappers claimed victory for the Clippers. And, the cappers that had Denver had them at -12 to get the win on the Nuggets. No hanndicappers on that site lost that game. Also, on Sunday I had the Kings +1.5 over the Wizards and they lost by 2. The cappers on the other site that played on the Kings had them at +2.5, therefore the Kings were winners for them.

My method is to declare the pointspread during the early to mid afternoon hours and go with it. Obviously, the line that I am playing is subject to move thereafter. My reason for posting a line is that I want to show a definitive win or loss. I want to avoid the common ploy among handicappers where they post their selections without the pointspread in order to afford them the luxury to grab an extra half or whole point if they need it for a win or push. I choose not to play this way.

Between the multitude of Vegas and offshore books, a capper or bettor can always find a game that has a half point to a full point advantage towards their side at some point during the day. Unfortunately, the reality is that the majority of bets are not neccessarly getting the best number. The pro cappers are taking liberties with the line moves throughout the day to bolster their stated winnings.

If I declared victories for the Clippers and Kings, I would have won 7 of 8 games during those two days. That would have been a swing of +4.2 units that would certainly move me up the ladder in the standings. There are probably 10 to 15 games at a minimum in an NBA season where cappers could exercise the extra half or full point advantage to rescue a victory from the jaws of defeat. This alone would provide +20 to +30 units per season. Beware the cappers that employ such tactics. Their record is not as good as they claim.

My record stands as stated. I will continue to pick my games with a posted line, even though this will put me at a distinct disadvantage with the professionals on the vegasinsider.com site. Heck, with another 20-30 units, I would be right at the top of the standings.

Betting on Defense

2009-03-12T13:37:00.003-04:00

In an NBA game that features two equal opponents, a well known handicapping strategy is to back the better defensive club. Great defensive teams in the NBA bring the full effort night in and night out. Cappers and bettors have confidence in relying on consistent levels of play from the defensive minded squads. Conversely, there is nothing like the sinking feeling of backing a team on a night where they simply don’t show up and provide little defensive intensity. Unfortunately, this occurs too frequently in the NBA.

A popular measuring stick to determine an NBA team’s defensive ability is defensive field goal percentage. After all, it is logical to think that poor shooting percentages mean lower scores. However, defensive field goal percentage is not always the prime indicator for an NBA team’s defensive prowess.

Turnovers, fouls and allowing the opponent to crash the offensive boards can distort the true value of defensive field goal percentage. Turning the ball over and getting out-rebounded means the opponent is getting more shots at the basket. Committing fouls means the opposing team is getting to the foul line. Consequently, the opponent can score a lot of points even with a low field goal percentage.

There is no need to over analyze statistics when gauging NBA defense. An NBA team’s defensive ability is best measured by average points allowed per game. In the final analysis, defense is about preventing the other team from scoring and points allowed encompasses all the elements that impact the defensive result. Since the average points scored per game by an NBA team is about 100, a top caliber or great defensive team is defined as one that holds its opponents to an average of less than 90 points per game over its last four games. Again, Matchup Handicapping concentrates on recent performance, not season to date.

The task is to correlate great defense with winning and losing ATS. Fortunately, Matchup Handicapping provides the vehicle through the team performance ratings. A pot of gold appears with the top “D” teams also performing at an excellent level of play. Since the 2004-05 NBA season through the 2008-09 season to date, two winning situations distinguish themselves as stated below: Excellent home favorites playing great defense have compiled an overall record of 215 wins against 169 losses ATS (56%). Excellent road dogs playing the great “D” have covered 56 of the last 92 ATS (60.9%).

While these two tendencies certainly show a winning propensity, they do not include pointspread ranges or whether a team won or lost its previous game SU. In true Matchup Handicapping fashion, the analysis continues to include these factors and with a statistical function known as “standard deviation” that assists the effort in identifying pointspread ranges. Do not worry, standard deviation can be explained in very simple terms. For a given matchup, it basically computes two-thirds of the pointspread values that are closest to the average pointspread. This allows the capacity to determine “normal” and “inaccurate” pointspread ranges.

Revisiting the excellent home favorite and using the standard deviation, the normal pointspread range for an excellent home favorite playing great defense that won its last game SU falls between 5 and 12 points. This 5 to 12 pointspread range represents approximately two-thirds of the games for this criteria. The remaining one-third of the games show this home team favored by less than 5 or more than 12. In plain terms, standard deviation helps show when favorites are laying too many or not enough points, and whether dogs are getting too many or not enough points.

When the pointspread is 12 or less, this home favorite has 168 wins and 115 losses ATS (59.4%). When the spread is greater than 12 indicating an inaccurate line, this home favorite is laying too many points as it has performed miserably ATS with 15 wins and 27 losses (35.7%). Play on an excellent home favorite playing great defense that won its last game SU within a 0 to 12 pointspread range. Play against this home favorite when the line is greater than 12.

Another example finds an excellent road favorite playing great defense that won its last game SU has a normal pointspread range between 3 and 8. An inaccurate line of less than 3 presents a solid winning situation as this road favorite has covered the low number 18 of the last 27 ATS for an outstanding 66.7% mark. The remaining games for this road favorite show a disappointing 55 wins and 73 losses ATS (43%). Play on an excellent road favorite playing great defense that won its last game when favored by less than 3. Play against this road favorite when the line is 3 or more.

Consider good home favorites playing great defense that won their last game SU. The normal pointspread range falls between 3.5 and 10. When the line is inaccurately low at 3 or less, the good home favorite has covered the low number 11 of the last 17 ATS (64.7%). An inaccurate line of greater than 10 finds the good home favorite laying too many points as it has covered only 2 of the last 10. Play on a good home favorite playing great defense that won its last game SU when favored by less than 3. Play against this home favorite when the line is greater than 10.

A good road dog playing great defense that won its last game SU has a normal pointspread range of 3 to 7.5. An inaccurate line of less than 3 shows the road dog is not getting enough points as it has covered just 1 of the last 11 ATS. Play against a good road dog playing great defense that won its last game SU when getting less than 3 points.

And by the way, the previously mentioned excellent road dog playing great defense is a solid ATS play throughout the entire pointspread range as long as the dog is coming off a straight-up win. The ATS record is an outstanding 51 wins versus 30 losses ATS (63%). Play on an excellent road dog playing great defense that won its last game SU.

The defensive strategy is a sound one in handicapping the NBA. It provides cappers and bettors with many profitable opportunities.

Parlays

2009-03-02T15:04:00.021-05:00

A parlay is a combination bet where all the bets fall under a single wager. Each bet must cover to win the wager. For example, a three team parlay involves three bets and if all three cover, the bettor collects six times the wager amount. Sounds good except for the fact it only takes one bet to lose and the total wager amount is lost. Important to note is that depending on the book, a push in a parlay results either in a no bet situation, or the bet is pushed down to fewer games. Under the push down rule, a push in a three team parlay converts the bet into a two team parlay and a push in a two team parlay would become a straight bet.

The inevitable question arises to whether a parlay bet is a sound investment strategy. In order to answer this question, the important number to consider is the projected success rate for picking pointspread winners. If a bettor is picking less than 52.38% winners, straight bets are better than parlays as the straight bets will lose at a slower rate than the parlays. The consolation for making straight bets would be the bankroll won’t be wiped out as fast. The bottom line is that both straight bets and parlays will be losing propositions for failure to pick consistent winners. If you cannot pick consistent winners, why are you betting anyway?

For the situation where the bettor can pick consistent winners, let’s use some statistical mathematics to crunch the probability numbers. Let’s use a two team parlay where we will back Team A and Team B. The first step is to determine all the possible outcomes for each of the two bets.

There is one combination of two wins. (Team A and Team B cover).
There are two combinations of one win and one loss. (Team A covers and Team B losses). (Team B covers and Team A losses).
There is one combination of two losses. (Team A and Team B both lose).

Thus, there are a total of four win-loss combinations, assuming there are no pushes. If a bettor picks 54% winners over a season, the individual game bet success rate is 0.54 and the individual game bet failure rate is 0.46. Applying the success and failure rates to the four possible combinations shows the following:

The probability of two winners is: 0.54 x 0.54 x 1 combination = 0.291 (29.1%)
The probability of one winner and one loser is: 0.54 x 0.46 x 2 combinations = 0.497 (49.7%)
The probability of two losers is: 0.46 x 0.46 x 1 combination = 0.212 (21.2%)

Since a winning two team parlay pays 13/5 odds, this means a successful parlay will pay out 2.6 times the wager amount. The 13/5 odds also show that 5 out of 18 (27.8%) two team parlays are required to win to break even. For a $110 parlay wager, a winning parlay will pay out $286 and if any game loses, the $110 wager will be lost. If 54% ATS winners over time are anticipated, the expected rate of return on the two team parlay bet is computed as follows:

0.291 x $286 = $83.23 (bettor has a 29.1% chance of winning $286 on successful parlay)
0.497 x -$110 = -$54.67 (bettor has a 49.7% chance of splitting the games and losing $110)
0.212 x -$110 = -$23.32 (bettor has a 21.2% chance of losing both games and losing $110)

Summing the three returns (83.23-54.67-23.32) yields an expected profit of $5.24 per parlay bet. If a bettor played 150 two team parlays at $110 each (gross risk = $16,500), the expected profit would be $786.00.

Would the bettor make more money playing straight bets? If the bettor chose straight bets for the same games, there would be 300 single wagers at $55 each (gross risk = $16,500) and 54% winners would show 162 winning bets and 138 losing bets. With a 10% juice, the profit would compute to (24 – 13.8) x $55 = $561.00. This calculation shows that at 54% winners, a two team parlay has a higher expected rate of return than straight bets.

Actually, 52.7% ATS winners are the breakeven point for two team parlay bets as compared to 52.38% ATS winners for straight bets at 10% juice. In other words, if a bettor can win more than 52.7% of the plays, the two team parlay has a higher expected rate of return than straight bets. And, three team parlays are even better.

Beware, before everyone forsakes straight bets to play all parlays, extreme words of caution need to be expressed. First of all, there is no guarantee that 54% winners will directly translate into winning 29.1% of the two team parlay bets as shown above. It is mathematically possible to only win 16 parlays out of 100 while still picking 54% winners. This worst case scenario translates into $4,664 in losses with a $110 per parlay wager. Ouch! It clearly shows that 29 parlay winners are in no way guaranteed while picking 54% winners in the individual games. Parlays are a high risk venture.

The second reason for not falling in love with parlays is that it can compel bettors to force the action. If only one game stands out on the day’s card, the bettor is likely to force another selection to generate the parlay. This is never a good idea and can quickly accelerate a losing agenda.

Parlays should be an occasional wager and only when the bettor is operating in the profit mode and has two solid plays for that day. If each straight play is worth 5% of the starting bankroll, I advise a two team parlay bet should be 2.5% at most of the starting bankroll amount, and only on occasion.

When to Back a Bad Team

2009-02-12T15:41:00.006-05:00

One of the fundamental laws of smart handicapping is to never play against a team playing great and never back a team playing horrible. All cappers and bettors would be wise to adhere to this basic rule. But like everything else in life, there are exceptions to every rule.

Matchup Handicapping classifies a bad team as very poor. A very poor NBA team is one that is playing at a level that would win less than 22 games over a full regular season. No doubt these teams are consistently thumped and thrashed making it a very difficult choice for any capper or bettor to back no matter how many points these teams are getting.

Consider a very poor road dog that lost its last game and is opposing a good or average foe. If this beaten down road dog is getting between 7 and 15 points, it has responded to the tune of 131 wins against 87 losses ATS dating back to the 2004-05 season. This computes to a solid 60% winning percentage over the last 218 plays. How many cappers have picked 60% winners over their last 218 plays? Speaking for myself, I have not.

Another winning role is when a very poor home favorite that lost its last game is playing another very poor club. The bottom feeder contest is certainly not billed as a clash of the titans. But even dreadful games present opportunity for those with the keen eye and attention to detail. If the home favorite is laying between 2 and 7 points, this woeful home club has covered 21 of the last 35 plays (60%). There is something to be said for "one man’s trash is another man’s treasure."

Sportsform Basketball

2009-02-06T14:00:00.004-05:00

Sportsform Basketball
880 Corporate Drive, Suite 400
Lexington, KY 40503
1-877-514-4220

I have the honor of being a contributing writer for Sportsform Basketball. Sportsform offers angles, advice, team ratings, details and predictions on all the week's college and pro basketball games. It is a valuable asset to my handicapping efforts.

Winning and Losing Momentum

2009-02-06T07:20:00.039-05:00

Anybody who plays or watches sporting events knows that momentum can play a huge role in the outcome of a contest. Particularly in the NBA where momentum swings are very common throughout the flow of the game. Having watched countless NBA games, it is not uncommon for one team to race out to an early double digit lead only to end up losing by double digits by game’s end. Welcome to life in the NBA.

Momentum is also evident over an NBA team’s most recent performances. A team that has won 3 of its last 4 games certainly has a different mindset than an NBA club that has lost 3 of its last 4 games. A famous saying in sports is “winning breeds winning” and “losing breeds losing.” Put another way, good teams find a way to win and bad teams find a way to lose.

Winning and losing causes momentum and shapes a team’s attitude. Attitude affects performance. Performance causes winning and losing. Think of this process as a sequence of perpetual events.

Attitude------Performance------Winning & Losing------Attitude------Performance------Winning & Losing------Attitude------ad infinitum

Since team performance is a prerequisite for Matchup Handicapping and momentum shapes attitude thereby affecting performance, a study to identify any correlation between momentum and the NBA pointspread is deemed relevant.

A simple, yet effective measure for gauging NBA team momentum is SU win-loss record in recent games. Winning momentum is defined as an NBA team that won 3 or 4 of its last 4 games. Losing momentum is defined as an NBA team that lost 3 or 4 of its last 4 games.

Matchup Handicapping for the NBA generates the momentum and pointspread results and identifies situations with strong pointspread tendencies. In addition, a pointspread range and whether a team has won or lost its last game are included in the study in order to further qualify the results.

Based on the 2004-05 to 2008-09 season to date,

ATS results for Winning vs. Winning Momentum:

Within a 5-8 pointspread range, home favorite is the side with winning momentum that won its last game SU opposing a road dog with winning momentum that won its last game SU having delivered 101 wins versus 69 losses ATS (59.4% winners). This situtaion occurs quite frequently and it appears the betting public leans towards the dog in this case.

Within 0-6 pointspread range, home dog is the side with winning momentum that lost its last game SU opposing road favorite with winning momentum that lost its last game SU having covered 11 of the last 15 plays ATS (73.3% winners). Unfortunately, this situation doesn't occur frequently as it requires both teams to have lost their last game after three consecutive SU victories.

ATS results for Winning vs. Losing Momentum:

Within 0-9 pointspread range, road dog is the side with winning momentum that lost its last game SU opposing a home favorite with losing momentum that won its last game SU having covered 24 of the last 34 plays ATS (70.6%). This game is somewhat of a conundrum as it features the winning momentum team losing its last game and the losing momentum team winning its last game. The bottom line is that this paltry home favorite is really fooling the betting public.

ATS results for Losing vs. Losing Momentum:

Within entire pointspread range, road dog is the side with losing momentum that lost its last game SU opposing a home favorite with losing momentum that lost its last game SU having covered 72 of the last 121 plays ATS (59.5%).

ATS results for Losing vs. Winning Momentum:

Within 6-9.5 pointspread range, road dog is the side with losing momentum that lost its last game SU opposing a home favorite with winning momentum that won its last game SU having delivered 92 wins versus 71 losses ATS (56.4%).

I don't make a play based exclusively on the momentum factor. If I am undecided regarding a play, I will use the momentum factor to tip the scale in my decision making process.

The Weary NBA Road Dog Warrior

2009-01-29T14:36:00.003-05:00

A common theme in NBA handicapping is the rest factor. Many handicappers and bettors like to play against poor, struggling NBA teams in the midst of a long road trip. I have heard and read this rationale on countless occasions. Why not? It sure sounds like a sound reason to make a play. However, logic does not prevail as the facts hardly support the supposition.

Going back to the 2004-05 NBA season through the 2008-09 season to date, an initial study finds that any NBA road dog coming off a SU loss on its third or more consecutive road game has covered 304 times versus 256 losses ATS. This winning mark computes to 54.3% and is quite admirable given the great number of plays.

Taking it another step, I eliminated the games where the road dog was playing on back to back nights. Hence, NBA road dogs coming off a SU loss on its third or more consecutive road game, having not played the day or night before, have covered 203 times versus 156 losses ATS. This approach increased the winning percentage to 56.5%.

Never one to leave a job half finished, I called on the Matchup Handicapping performance ratings to fine tune the study in more detail. To my great satisfaction, I uncovered a solid winning situation as follows:

Poor and Very Poor road dogs coming off a SU loss on their third or more consecutive road game, having not played the day or night before, show an outstanding 155 wins against 109 losses ATS for a rather crisp 58.7% tally.

The lesson learned in this exercise is just when it appears a bad NBA team is down and out, they rear up and outperform the linesmaker’s and public’s expectation thereby creating an advantageous situation for the knowledgeable capper and bettor.

Defense in the NBA

2009-01-27T07:29:00.003-05:00

A well known handicapping strategy is to back the better defensive club in a game that features two equal opponents. Good defensive teams in the NBA are the teams that bring the full effort night in and night out. Cappers and bettors can rely on a much more consistent level of play from the better defensive teams. Conversely, there is nothing like the sinking feeling of backing a team on a night where they simply don’t show up and provide little defensive intensity. Unfortunately, this occurs too frequently in the NBA.

The task is to correlate the top defensive teams with winning and losing ATS. Fortunately, Matchup Handicapping provides the vehicle through the team performance ratings. The model is created by linking the (5) performance ratings of Excellent, Good, Average, Poor and Very Poor with great defensive effort.

The average points per game scored by an NBA team is approximately 100. Let’s define a top defensive team as one that holds its opponents to an average of less than 90 points per game over its last four games. Next, the database is consulted for the 2004-05 season through this season to date. The top defensive clubs are isolated and shown with their performance rating.

A pot of gold appears with the teams performing at an Excellent level of play. Two extraordinary winning situations distinguish themselves as stated below:

Excellent Home Favorites, playing great defense, have covered 211 out of 377 contests. This equates to a convincing 56.0% winning mark over the last 377 plays.

Excellent Road Dogs playing the great “D” have covered 55 of the last 88 ATS. This my friends (for all you John McCain fans) computes to an unbelievable winning percentage of 62.5% over the last 88 plays. It doesn’t get any easier than this in the handicapping world.

Of course all good things come to an end at some point. A significant drop-off occurs as a team’s performance rating falls to Good or Average. Consider Good and Average Home Favorites playing the great “D” have covered only 100 of the last 122 games (45%), and Good and Average Road Dogs putting forth the top defensive effort have covered only 112 of the last 229 contests (48.9%).

Although the defensive angle strategy is a sound one in handicapping the NBA, the lesson here is to know the difference between an Excellent NBA squad and a Good one.

When to Back an "Excellent" NBA Squad

2009-01-22T14:11:00.008-05:00

Most cappers and bettors love to back the NBA elite teams because the best teams exhibit the quality of consistent stellar play. The top teams are much less likely to experience that off night that all too often dooms a pointspread selection right from the opening tip.

But it is not as easy to just simply play the excellent teams time after time. The Vegas number certainly compensates by throwing points at the opposition which makes it a more difficult task for the top teams to cover the number.

To reiterate, Matchup Handicapping rates NBA teams based on their current performance levels factoring in recent game scoring differential, home and road court factors, strength of schedule, playing on back to back nights, team defense and winning or losing momentum. Each NBA team rating falls within one of five performance levels defined as Excellent, Good, Average, Poor or Very Poor.

Let’s concentrate on the Excellent clubs and identify a consistent winning situation. The analysis will include back to the 2004-05 season through the 2008-09 season to date. One spot finds when an Excellent Home Favorite coming off a SU win plays an Average Road Dog, the home favorite rules ATS when the line is between 0 and 10. The Excellent home chalk has delivered a magnificent 137 wins against 85 losses that computes to a torrid 61.7% winning ATS mark. Yours truly has been riding this train for awhile.

But, proceed with caution. There are situations where backing these elite NBA teams can send you to the poorhouse. This is a subject for a future discussion.

Live Road Dogs Playing on Back to Back Nights

2009-01-16T14:20:00.021-05:00

An NBA team playing on back to back nights against an opponent that did not play the night before has a definite impact on the posted line. When the pointspreads are listed, sometimes sharp cappers and bettors see games where the spread appears very appealing at first glance. Many times these games feature one of the teams playing on back to back nights because additional points are almost always given to the team playing back to back. The inflated side almost always looks good at first sight.

Given the fact that since the 2000-2001 NBA season, when a team playing on back to back nights plays a team that did not play the night before, the NBA team playing back to back has an ATS record of only 1319 wins and 1448 losses. This computes to only a 47.7% pointspread winning percentage. Too bad there is a vig! But be careful, because last season and so far this season, the ATS record is evening out as the linesmaker is obviously further tweaking the lines.

Again, a real advantage to Matchup Handicapping is its ability to view the overall pointspread landscape to recognize tendencies in certain areas. Let’s look at some road dogs that are playing on back to back nights versus a home team that had the previous night off. Here, the linesmaker is clearly inflating the road dog lines to compensate for the back to back travel scenario against an opponent enjoying some rest and home cooking. Let’s see if we can find some winning situations that take advantage of the extra points.

Going back to the 2004-05 NBA season,

Excellent or Good Road Dog that won SU the night before versus
Poor or Very Poor Home Favorite with last night off

Back to back team has covered 6 of the last 7 games (86%).

Poor or Very Poor Road Dog that won SU the night before versus
Poor or Very Poor Home Favorite with last night off

Back to back team has covered 18 of the last 28 games (64%).

Poor or Very Poor Road Dog that won SU the night before versus
Good, Average or Poor Home Favorite with last night off

Back to back team has covered 46 of the last 79 games (58%).

Changing Trend:

Excellent or Good Road Dog that won SU the night before versus
Excellent or Good Home Favorite with last night off

Entering the 2007-08 NBA season,
Back to back team had covered only 11 of the last 37 games (30%).
During 2007-08 and this season to date,
Back to back team has covered 20 of the last 33 games (61%).

Clearly, this tendency represents a dramatic turnaround to favor the weary road dog side.

Matchup Handicapping has identified winning scenarios within the overall pointspread map that deals with teams playing on back to back nights. These tendencies are deemed relevant and worth future study because the ATS analysis is based on current performance levels of the teams, not some individual team trend that has nothing to do with how well each team is playing. Matchup Handicapping is performance based. It does not use “blind” trends.

Windows of Opportunity

2009-01-04T16:46:00.010-05:00

One of the great advantages with Matchup Handicapping for the NBA is its ability to look out over the broad pointspread landscape and identify certain winning or losing situations. I refer to these situations as windows of opportunity that provide cappers and bettors with a good understanding of what is actually transpiring in the NBA pointspread world.

Let's consider the matchup where a Poor or Very Poor Home Dog that won its last game SU is opposing an Excellent or Very Good Road Favorite. (Matchup Handicapping rates NBA teams as either Excellent, Good, Average, Poor or Very Poor). Here we have a weak club coming off a SU win opposing a far superior one. The Matchup Handicapping database shows that the Road Favorite dominates this matchup within a 0-10 pointspread range. The Road Favorite has covered a commanding 25 of the last 36 games in this matchup. It is obvious that this home dog is no live dog. It is also obvious that this Road Chalk is a solid pointspread play.

Now, consider this same Poor or Very Poor Home Dog, except that it lost its last game SU and the pointspread is between 3 and 13. When opposing an Excellent or Good Road Favorite, this home dog certainly qualifies as a live dog given it has covered a consistent 108 times out of the last 189 games. This is truly a remarkable winning situation because of the vast number of plays.

Some may not agree with my "remarkable" label because the winning percentage is a "meager" 57.1%. Well, I totally disagree and consider this winning situation as money in the bank. As stated in other articles in this blog site, a 56% winning percentage can double the starting bankroll total over an NBA season following the Matchup Handicapping guidelines.

Against the Grain

2009-01-02T15:13:00.008-05:00

The Vegas linesmaker is certainly a formidable foe. We all know the intent of the posted number is to entice equal action on both sides. The linesmaker expertly accomplishes this task on a very consistent basis.

Conventional handicapping wisdom is to isolate the games where the posted line either overvalues or undervalues a team significantly enough to make the appropriate side a play. This is what cappers call looking for value in the line.

Matchup Handicapping for the NBA takes this strategy to a whole new level by looking more for value in the matchup, as opposed to in the line. Let me explain the difference. Consider the following pointspread matchups that include only "Excellent" and "Good" NBA clubs (Matchup Handicapping rates NBA teams as either Excellent, Good, Average, Poor or Very Poor). This group represents the hot NBA teams, or approximately the top 1/3 of the league.

Matchup: Excellent or Good Home Favorite that won its last game SU versus an Excellent or Good Road Dog.

Since both teams are playing well, it appears to be a relatively even game, except for the home court advantage. Using the mentality of looking for value in the line, if a capper or bettor wanted to back the home favorite, I think everyone would agree that the less points laid, the better. But, now is the time to consider the reality of the situation.

My database shows:

Within a 0-3 pointspread range, the road dog is the side having covered 19 of the last 29 games .

Within a 4-10 pointspread range, the home favorite is the side having covered 27 of the last 46 games.

If a capper or bettor were to back the home favorite based on value in the line, they would be more apt to back the home favorite in the 0-3 pointspread range. Obviously, they want to lay the least amount of points. Unfortunately, they would be walking right into the trap of a losing proposition.

The fact of the matter is that the value in the matchup for the home favorite side occurs when laying 4-10 points, not 0-3. The bettor needs to go against the grain in this situation. This is what I refer to as a window of opportunity or finding value in the matchup. The Matchup Handicapping approach identifies these windows of opportunity that reveal the chinks in the armour of the Vegas linesmaker.

Beware Handicapping Scam Artists

2008-12-15T08:14:00.014-05:00

Many self-proclaimed "professional" handicappers dupe their clients and readers by distorting their winning percentage. The scam involves having a multitude of different size plays over a number of sports. Many handicappers rate their plays by units, stars, dimes, etc. Their contention is that the stronger plays warrant a higher wager, therefore they assign more units, stars or dimes to their stronger plays. But, the real reason behind all the various wager sizes is as follows:

Let's say a handicapper offers selections in pro and college football and basketball. This represents four sports. Let's say the handicapper offers 5, 10, 15, 20, 25, 50 and 100 unit plays in his picks. If you do the math, this handicapper has created 28 different categories, given there are 7 different strength plays over 4 sports. Moreover, if totals are included, there is now 56 categories to monitor. Furthermore, the winning percentages can be broken down by days, weeks or months. There is no end to the various categories that can be created in the quest to project a winning ledger.

Just thinking, what is the difference between a 20 dime and a 25 dime pick? I guess the 25 dimer has a slightly higher winning percentage. I have been at this for 28 years and I wouldn't have a clue how to make such a determination.

Since picking a pointspread winner is basically a 50-50 probability for anyone with no knowledge at all, the odds are that this capper can post a winning percentage in some of the numerous categories over the short term. For example, this capper could be touting 4 wins in last 5 plays with 15 unit plays in college football, 6 wins in last 8 plays for 10 unit plays in pro basketball, 2 wins in a row for 50 unit plays on the total in pro football, 4 winning days in last 6 days, 2 winning months in last 3 months, etc. In other words, it is really easy for a handicapper to "honestly" project a winning resume. The problem is that the capper's overall winning percentage for the season is nowhere to be found.

Don't fall victim to this practice. If a handicapper does not offer their season to date win loss record for a particular sport, the odds are the handicapper has a losing record. While the handicapper is not lying by just focusing on the winning categories, he or she is certainly not being totally honest and forthcoming. Such a practice is termed legal, but unethical. The scammer cappers really take advantage of this gray area.

Not all handicappers are guilty of this practice. If a bettor is considering paying a handicapper for pointspread plays, I strongly recommend that the bettor gets the season to date pointspread record for each particular sport that will be wagered on.

Remember, anybody can experience short term success in picking pointspread winners. Consistent winners are not defined as simply winning days, weeks or months. Consistent pointspread winners are defined as a winning season of plays.

Team Power Ratings Perspective

2008-11-30T06:47:00.004-05:00

Matchup Handicapping rates NBA teams based on their current performance levels. It factors in recent game scoring differential, home and road court factors, strength of schedule, playing on back to back nights, team defense and winning or losing momentum. Recent is defined by a team's last 3-5 games. Each NBA team rating falls within one of five performance levels defined as Excellent, Good, Average, Poor or Very Poor.

Therefore, the NBA team power ratings used in Matchup Handicapping can actually be defined as NBA team performance ratings. And, these performance ratings are not compared to project how many points better one NBA team is than its opposition for a given game, which flies in the face of conventional handicapping wisdom.

For a given game, each opponent's performance rating is used to create the matchup. A necessary finishing touch is the inclusion of the pointspread range for the game, typically a 3-4 point span. If the posted number is 4.5, the pointspread range could be 3 to 6. For example, a matchup could be defined as: Good Home Favorite that lost its last game versus an Average Road Dog that won its last game within a 3 to 6 pointspread range.

An important consideration in reading NBA team performance ratings is to realize the difference between home and road team performance ratings. It is absolute NBA fact that the vast majority of NBA teams play much better at home than on the road. This translates to a slight distortion in a team's home and road performance ratings.

Back to our Good Home Favorite opposing an Average Road Dog scenario stated above. Generally speaking, since it is more difficult to play better on the road, it is therefore more difficult to achieve an equal or better performance rating for a road club than a home club. In other words, many times an average road team can be viewed as equal in performance to a good home team, provided these teams were playing on a neutral court.

One way to think of it is that an Average road team is quite possibly a quality NBA team. Conversely, an Average home team can be viewed as a below average performer.

I mention this dialogue because it is vital that the NBA team performance ratings are up-to-date and accurate for each NBA contest. Matchup Handicapping's performance ratings must be relevant and on-target to provide the mechanism to consistently beat the spread. Greater understanding in the team performance ratings should correlate into a better handicapping decision making process.

The power ratings must be updated after each day's slate of games are completed. Performing this task on a daily basis requires passion, dedication, attention to detail and time.

Wager Guidelines

2008-11-22T06:42:00.007-05:00

There is no “lock” or “strongest play of the season” philosophy. Although some plays seem to have more factors in their favor, it is highly recommended that all the pointspread plays in Matchup Handicapping are of equal play strength. With a projected 54-58% winning clip, no play should be weighted more than another because there just isn't a large enough winning percentage disparity to warrant making some plays worth more than others.

Simply put, a play is a play or not a play. There is no gray area. There is just too much uncertainty when it comes to pointspreads given the ability of the linesmaker to consistently project neutral lines and the overall randomness of how any game may play out.

Since all knowledgeable cappers and bettors know it requires 52.38% pointspread winners to break even (at 10% juice) assuming that all the wagers are of equal amount, the Matchup Handicapping approach helps to overcome the vig and realistically places the cappers and bettors in a winning environment. Again, there are no guarantees in a winning percentage, but there is a realistic understanding that a 54-58% winning percentage over a season is both attainable and acceptable.

How should one wager? Any wise and disciplined money management approach requires a bankroll to begin the season. The bankroll amount is a lump sum of cash set aside in a separate account and is what the player can afford to lose without undermining or destabilizing the bettor’s livelihood. Think of it as strictly disposable income for investment or venture capital enterprises. The paramount question to ask of oneself is “can I afford to lose all this money?” If and only if the answer is yes, then you can start making wagers.

I recommend that all wagers during a season be 5% of the starting bankroll amount. For example, if the starting bankroll is $5,000, each wager should be $250. As stated elsewhere in this blog site, if the bettor wins about 56% of the bets over about 300 plays (about an NBA season), the bettor essentially doubles the starting bankroll. How is your 401K performing these days?

How Much Do I Stand To Win?

2008-11-11T14:48:00.010-05:00

The key to being a successful sports handicapper or bettor is to develop a decision making process that achieves an edge in overcoming the vig induced 52.38% winning requirement. Matchup Handicapping has proven to win 54-58% of NBA pointspread plays over recent years. While there is no guarantee of an actual winning percentage, I am very confident that the winning trend will continue. The confidence comes from knowing that Matchup Handicapping presents a dynamic, on-target approach at beating the NBA pointspread. It is not a typical betting trend approach. Instead, it accurately rates the current performance levels of the teams and my extensive database shows how similar matchups have performed historically versus the spread. It is my contention that historic winning and losing matchup trends will continue on their present course to a large extent.

Looking at the winning matchup trends for the Daily Picks, the important concept to understand is that Matchup Handicapping does not expect these trends to continue to win at the rather lofty percentages shown at the time of the game. The goal of Matchup Handicapping is to identify strong, consistent tendencies for a given matchup with the realistic expectation that these strong, consistent tendencies will contribute towards beating the NBA point spread 54-58% of the time.

A 54-58% winning percentage provides a modest winning advantage. The reality of a marginal winning percentage is that there will be ups and downs in the process. But a modest winning advantage over time can reap large rewards. Since there will be a variety of winning and losing streaks throughout the season, I highly recommend to bettors that they wager the same amount on every play throughout an NBA season. Wagering different amounts can create a scenario where the larger plays are losing and the smaller plays are winning with a net effect of big losses.

For example, in past years, I have experienced losing streaks, losing weeks and losing months. What is important to note is that the 54-58% advantage occurs over time and includes a variety of winning and losing streaks. Why? Because the reality is that about 45% of the picks will lose and this percentage will certainly lead to some down periods. Remember, sports handicapping is not an exact science and there is no such games as locks or guaranteed plays. I will leave the locks and guarantees to the sales pitches of the tout services.

With about 300 plays and an approximate 56% winning percentage, a bettor can double the bankroll by season's end. In today's economic climate, I fail to see a problem with doubling the bankroll in a 6-7 month NBA season. This is the goal of Matchup Handicapping for the NBA.

The Basics

2008-11-10T19:01:00.012-05:00

Matchup Handicapping strives to beat the NBA pointspread on a consistent basis by providing a handicapping edge over time. The target winning percentage is 54-58% with 250-300 plays on average over an NBA season. This "modest" winning percentage can reap large dividends for a bettor who understands the investment strategy is a season long journey.

Matchup Handicapping for the NBA establishes team power ratings based on current team performance levels. However, the opponent power ratings are not compared to project how many points better one NBA team is than its opposition for a given game. (Trust me, handicapping is not an exact science).

Instead, Matchup Handicapping creates a matchup between two rated opponents and studies how similarly rated matchups have performed historically versus the spread. Winning matchup trends are isolated to produce consistent pointspread winners.

Matchup Handicapping involves a strong commitment and work ethic as a host of stats over recent games are used in the analysis. My handicapping work is executed every day. The pointspreads I use in my daily picks are the most common spread for each game from the offshore books during the afternoon hours.

Thus, Matchup Handicapping develops matchup trends, that are not to be confused with the typical individual team trends that dominate the industry. The bottom line is how can anyone risk reputation or hard earned money on betting trends that do not factor in how well each team is playing at the time of the game? Matchup Handicapping addresses this situation.

Disclaimer

2008-11-10T16:30:00.003-05:00

The information provided on this site is not to be used in violation of any local, state, federal or international laws. This site does not make any guarantees regarding any winning percentages and bears absolutely no responsibility for any winnings or losings from legal or illegal wagering activities. There is no implied agreement whatsoever between me and the readers of this site.

No information on this site may be sold without my written consent.

The House Advantage

2008-11-10T15:50:00.011-05:00

Matchup Handicapping for the NBA can provide cappers and bettors with a “house advantage” in picking NBA pointspread winners. Matchup Handicapping has proven over recent years to bang home NBA pointspread winners 54-58% of the time. Hopefully, this winning trend will continue. Now, many people may think this is too low of a winning percentage to be deemed worthy of praise, but I beg to differ.

The key to winning and maximizing profits with a "modest" winning percentage is to have a sufficient number of plays. Thus, Matchup Handicapping for the NBA was designed to achieve a modest winning percentage with a relatively high yield of plays. Furthermore, I maintain that a winning percentage of 54-58% over an NBA season of plays is the most realistic and optimistic expectation for cappers and bettors. If a handicapper or bettor is winning in the 54-58% range, there just isn’t a large enough winning percentage disparity to warrant making some plays worth more than others. Therefore, Matchup Handicapping recommends an equal 1 unit play per game for each and every game because it is not about short term winning, it is about winning seasons.

Matchup Handicapping generally offers about 10 to 15 NBA plays per week. A winning strategy would be to risk small wagers over a frequent number of plays. Consider an NBA betting season can produce about 300 plays and assume the winning percentage is 55.67% which would yield a 167 win and 133 loss pointspread ledger. If all plays or wagers were equal with a 10% juice, this would produce +20.7 units of profit for the season (34 gross wins - 13.3 for the vig deduction). If the bettor wagered an equal unit equal to 5% of the total bankroll for all 300 plays, the bettor essentially doubles the starting bankroll at season’s end. Voila, here we have a relatively low risk, high gain venture. How is your 401K and savings investments performing lately?

A low risk, high gain proposition is what the casinos enjoy. Why? Because they have factored the odds to provide them with a slight house advantage that almost guarantees their profit margins over the long haul. Sure they have losing days and make some large payouts to lucky gamblers, but the key to their profit mode is time. The longer everyone gambles, the more money casinos take in.

Think of a weighted coin that will flip the heads side up about 56% of the time. Would a bettor feel good betting the heads side up? You better believe it. With a 56% advantage, the proper wagering strategy would be to risk small amounts on many coin flips. Sure there will be losing streaks where tails are out-flipping the heads, but the 56% advantage should certainly provide a long term winning prospect. The absolute wrong strategy would be to risk large amounts at a time since a 56% advantage hardly qualifies as a can’t lose proposition. If the wagers are too high, a losing streak could wipe out the bankroll.

In summary, a house advantage is defined as a long term winning venture. Since a moderate winning percentage should experience a variety of winning and losing streaks, there is no guarantee on any specific time frame for posting a winning record. The goal of Matchup Handicapping for the NBA is to beat the pointspread 54-58% of the time over an NBA season. Wise and disciplined money management is essential in promoting a winning environment. There will be more to follow on this topic.

Why the NBA?

2008-11-10T14:09:00.003-05:00

Long ago in a long forgotten place, I was busy handicapping the NFL when it suddenly dawned on me that the NFL season just doesn't have a sufficient number of games to present itself as a truly profitable venture. It was then that the NBA came a calling. 28 years later and after trying every handicapping angle and technique known to man, I am consistently nailing NBA pointspread winners with my Matchup Handicapping approach.

There is a very famous saying in golf: “drive for show, putt for dough.” Well, this saying is analogous to handicapping and wagering in the NFL and NBA. Because of the greater number of games in an NBA season compared to an NFL season (about 4 times the amount of plays), when it comes to handicapping and betting, I maintain the NFL is for show and the NBA is for dough. While the NFL is certainly the more popular betting venue, a bettor wins much more money with a winning NBA season compared to a winning NFL season. Of course, handicapping the NBA is a much more arduous task given there is a slate of games on almost every day of the NBA season and the NBA playoff season extends well into June.

The challenge of the NBA is my advantage because I invest the time and energy every day of the NBA season to consistently pick winners with Matchup Handicapping.

What is Matchup Handicapping for the NBA?

2008-11-10T09:08:00.023-05:00

Matchup Handicapping for the NBA analyzes each NBA game in order to isolate winning pointspread situations. Each NBA team’s current performance level is established in the form of a power rating. Factors used in determining power ratings include score differentials, home and road court factors, strength of schedule, playing on back to back nights, team defense and winning or losing momentum. Again, the power ratings reflect an NBA team's recent performance, not a season to date summary.

Important to note, the power ratings are not compared to project how many points better one NBA team is than its opponent for a given game. Therefore, this power rating approach differs from conventional handicapping in that it is not used to determine the accuracy of the pointspread. In other words, Matchup Handicapping is not looking for value in the line. Handicapping should not be confused with an exact science.

Instead of focusing on an exact power rating value, five power rating ranges are established to project five different performance levels in the NBA. The five power rating ranges classify an NBA team's current performance level as excellent, good, average, poor or very poor. These five current performance levels correlate to regular season win totals. Think in terms that an excellent team is playing at a level to win 58 or more games, a good team at a level to win 49-57 games, an average team at a level to win 36-48 games, a poor team at a level to win 22-35 games and a very poor team is playing at a level to win less than 22 games.

Each matchup is then analyzed within the actual pointspread range, typically a 3-4 point span, and whether a team won or lost its last game SU. Inclusion of the pointspread range and a team's last game SU outcome is critical in the analysis as these two factors really lock in the matchup and account for how a team's last game is perceived by the linesmaker and betting public. Does a betting trend have any credibility if it doesn't factor in the pointspread value? I think not.

For example, December 22 of the 2008-09 NBA season found the Magic favored by 12 hosting the Warriors. Entering the game, the power ratings for each team were established and projected the current performance level of the home Magic as excellent and the road Warriors as very poor. The database showed that within a 10-13 pointspread range, an excellent home favorite that won its last game SU had covered a commanding 12 of the last 18 contests when playing a very poor road dog that lost its last game SU. The Magic certainly qualified as a pointspread pick and fortunately did not disappoint as they won the game handily by 32 points. Why can't they all be this easy?

The fundamental question asks "not what is the disparity between the power ratings and the pointspread,” but rather “how have teams performed historically versus the spread given each teams’ current performance level within the applicable pointspread range?”

Therefore, Matchup Handicapping for the NBA is about the matchup of two rated NBA opponents and how similarly rated matchups have performed historically versus the pointspread. To this end, Matchup Handicapping is looking for value in the matchup as opposed to value in the line.

A final note is that accurate, up to date power ratings are required to deliver the desired results of Matchup Handicapping. A real time snapshot of each team’s performance level creates the matchup for each NBA contest.