2010-11 NBA Pointspread News to Date

This NBA season has shown a dramatic swing in pointspread performance for home favorites as compared to the three preceeding NBA seasons. Consider that over the first 51 days of the NBA seasons 2007-08, 2008-09 and 2009-10, home favorites with overall SU winning records had a combined 174 covers against 145 losses ATS for an overall 54.6% winners. Furthermore, if we include having to have winning momentum to these teams, with winning momentum being defined as 3 or 4 SU wins in the last 4 games including a SU win in the last game, these HOT home favorites posted a miserable 75 covers versus 92 losses ATS for a poor 44.9% winning mark. Comparing the above two records shows that the home favorites with overall SU winning records without winning momentum were a big winner coming in at 99 covers against 53 losses ATS for a tremendous 65.1% winning mark.

This was not good news for bettors that followed the hot teams. The home favorite flying under the radar was the way to go.

But now it is the 2010-11 NBA season and oh what a change in direction. During the first 51 days, home favorites with overall SU winning records have 52 covers versus 56 losses ATS. Including having to have winning momentum to these teams, these HOT home favorites have cashed 36 covers versus 21 losses ATS for a great 63.2% winning rate. This means that the home favorites with overall SU winning records without winning momentum had covered a horrendous 16 out of 51 games for a truly miserable 31.4% success rate.

So the direct opposite is in play for this season thus far. Backing the hot home favorite is a money maker and betting the home favorite flying under the radar is a bankroll buster.

These dramatic turnarounds have wreaked havoc on my underdog selections thus far this season. However, I am confident that the HOT home favorite will not continue on this torrid winning pace because backing these NBA teams is too popular for John Q. Public bettor. The linesmaker will adjust accordingly.